Has violent crime increased under Donald Trump, as Tim Walz said?

In a viral moment following his appearance as the Democratic vice presidential candidate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz took a political and personal swipe at former President Donald Trump over his criminal record.

“And make no mistake,” Walz said on August 6 at the rally in Philadelphia with Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. “Under Donald Trump, the number of violent crimes has increased. And that doesn't even include the crimes he committed.”

The last part of Walz's testimony referred to Trump's conviction in May on 34 counts of falsifying business records as part of a plot to cover up a hush-money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 presidential election.

But what about Walz's claim that “violent crime has increased under Donald Trump,” which he repeated in an August 7 speech in Eau Claire, Wisconsin? The newly minted vice presidential candidate is right, but it requires some caveats.

Violent crime rate during Trump’s presidency

According to the FBI definition, there are four types of violent crime: murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault. The violent crime rate in the United States rose in the 1970s and 1980s, peaked in 1991 and has been declining since then, except for periodic peaks.

During the first three years of Trump's presidency, the violent crime rate per 100,000 residents – the figure the Harris-Walz campaign referred us to when we asked for comment – fell every year, falling from 377.7 per 100,000 in 2017 to 373.4 in 2018 to 363.9 in 2019.

But in 2020, the violent crime rate rose to 385.2 per 100,000 residents – higher than in any previous year under Trump.

The increase in 2020 was particularly strong in murders. In 2020, the number of murders reported to the FBI in the United States rose by 5,795, from 16,619 in 2019 to 22,414 in 2020.

Since 1961, no previous year has seen a rise in the number of murders of more than 2,000, so the increase in 2020 is almost three times the previous record.

Even taking into account the increase in 2020, the violent crime rate in Trump's final year in office was still lower than in the final year of his predecessor, President Barack Obama. In 2016, the violent crime rate was 389.9 per 100,000, slightly higher than in 2020.

Another important context: The peak of violent crime in 2020 was well below the rate recorded just a few decades ago.

In 2020, there were 385.2 violent crimes per 100,000 residents. In contrast, the rate never fell below 500 between 1979 and 2001, peaking at 758.2 in 1991.

Why violent crime increased in 2020

As we have reported, blaming Trump alone for the rise in murder rates in 2020 ignores how unusual life was in the United States in 2020.

Starting in March 2020, the coronavirus pandemic hit the country fast and hard. It disrupted the economy, changed travel patterns, drove many people indoors, and left many Americans temporarily without jobs and income. Another unusual factor this year was the police killing of Minneapolis resident George Floyd. Floyd's killing sparked a national outcry and a reckoning on racial issues.

“I would cite changing attitudes toward policing and its legitimacy, as well as the retreat of police after Floyd's death, as possible major factors in the increase,” Jeff Asher, a crime data analyst at consulting firm AH Datalytics, told PolitiFact in June.

“There is evidence that increased firearm carrying in the months following the pandemic may have acted as an accelerator and further fueled the increase,” Asher said.

Adam Gelb, CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, called the 2020 situation “a master class in criminology” given its sudden onset, duration and dramatic impact on people and institutions.

Most likely, all of these factors have reinforced each other. It is “not possible to separate every single factor from the pandemic,” Asher said.

In 2021, President Joe Biden's first year in office, the murder rate remained high, with 122 murders increasing that year compared to 2020. It has been falling since then, and although data is currently being released more than a year later, estimates suggest the murder rate will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023 or 2024.

Our verdict

Walz said: “Under Donald Trump, violent crime has increased.”

After the declines in the first three years of Trump's presidency, the increase in violent crime in 2020, his final year in office, was large enough to wipe out those collective declines.

However, the rate of violent crime in Trump's final year in office was still slightly lower than in the final year of his predecessor Obama.

Experts say it is wrong to blame Trump alone for the rise in crime, saying the increase was caused by a confluence of the coronavirus pandemic and the social unrest following Floyd's killing by police.

We rate the statement as half true.

From Louis JacobsonEditor at PolitiFact