Violent crime in Oakland and across the country appears to be declining in 2024

The tidal wave of violence that swept Oakland during the pandemic may be receding, according to the latest crime data from Oakland police. And Oakland, like most other major U.S. cities, may see a decline in murders and other violent crimes, according to a new report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association.

Police chiefs in America's largest cities reported a 17 percent drop in the murder rate from January to June compared to the same period last year. The number of robberies, assaults and rapes has also declined.

The data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association, a group that includes the chiefs of 70 of America's largest metropolitan areas, including Oakland, San Francisco and San Jose in the Bay Area, is preliminary, meaning it could be revised later and show a less significant drop in violent crime. Crime could also rise in the remaining four and a half months of 2024, resulting in an annual total not much different from 2023. But city officials and law enforcement are optimistic about the trend.

“These data are further evidence of a significant decline in violent crime in the nation's major cities,” U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement.

The Oaklandside has reached out to OPD, Mayor Sheng Thao and the Oakland Police Officers Association about the new reports and we will update this story if we receive a response.

For Oakland, the data could be a sign that the violence in the city that has escalated during the pandemic is finally easing.

In the first year of the pandemic, Oakland's homicides skyrocketed, from 75 in 2019 to 102 in 2020. The next three years each ended with over 120 homicides, rivaling some of the city's most violent eras in the 2000s and 1990s. Most property crimes dropped in 2020 as people stayed home, but robberies and burglaries skyrocketed from 2021 to 2023, OPD data shows.

Although year-to-date property crime data are less reliable due to reporting delays and therefore often lead to under-reporting of current-year incidents, real-time violent crime data tend to be much more accurate.

In the first eight months of 2024, there were 51 murders in Oakland, 10 fewer than in 2023 and a 15% decrease from the three-year average. The number of shootings is down 23%.

The Major Cities Chiefs report shows a similar decline in violent crime for Oakland in the first six months of 2024, a trend seen in most other major cities.

In the Bay Area, only San Jose reported an increase in the murder rate, from 13 in 2023 to 15 in 2024, as well as a small increase in robberies. The nationwide data appears to be a continuation of a trend that began in 2023, when most cities saw historic declines in their murder rates. Oakland did not see this progress in 2023; crime rates continued to rise across the board, particularly in robberies, burglaries, and auto thefts.

Oakland's violent crime rate remains among the highest in California and the United States, and the city has consistently ranked high in violent crime and property crime for decades.

Last week, the Oakland Police Officers Association blamed Mayor Sheng Thao for the city's crime problems and fiscal uncertainty and called for her resignation. Thao responded by accusing the police union of playing politics with public safety issues. The campaign to unseat the mayor has also tried to blame the rise in violent crime and burglaries during the pandemic on Thao's policies. Oakland voters will decide in November whether or not to unseat Thao.