Report: Aggravated assaults increase in NYC while other violent crimes decline

While New York City's violent crime rate largely continues to decline, a new report shows that serious assaults are on the rise – and the researchers who reached these findings aren't entirely sure why.

The report, compiled by the nonprofit organization Vital City from NYPD data, shows a sustained increase in serious assaults across the city since 2020. Researchers and academics say there could be numerous factors behind this trend and that understanding it is a critical step in addressing ongoing fears about public safety in the city.

“[Felony assault is] “It's not just about being hit – the legal definition requires a significant risk of death or disfigurement,” said Elizabeth Glazer, founder of Vital City, who also served as director of the Mayor's Office of Criminal Justice under Bill de Blasio.[The victim] You can expect someone to have long-term health problems or lose an organ. These are very serious offenses, and yet they are seen so high up.”

About 21,000 serious assaults were reported citywide in 2019, according to Vital City's analysis. Last year, that number rose to 28,000, even as shootings and murders declined after a spike early in the pandemic.

According to the NYPD's CompStat website, more than 17,400 aggravated assaults have been reported so far this year, up from about 16,600 cases during the same period last year.

Glazer said this increase, along with increases in other, less violent crimes such as harassment, assault and property damage, could increase city residents' fears about public safety.

“These are incidents that can happen anywhere in any neighborhood, on the subway, on the street, in Midtown,” Glazer said. In contrast, shootings have declined and are occurring in much more concentrated areas, as Gothamist's gun violence hotspot map shows.

A 2023 Citizens Budget Commission survey shows that a broad share of city residents are more concerned about safety in their communities than before the pandemic, with only 37% rating public safety in their neighborhood as excellent or good, down from 50% in 2017.

But Vital City's report shows that New York City's per capita crime rate is still lower than many other major cities, including Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix and Philadelphia.

Jeffrey Butts, professor and director of the Research and Evaluation Center at CUNY's John Jay College of Criminal Justice, said any increase in crime statistics is significant, but he noted that it also needs to be evaluated in the context of the city's history, its population size and its standing compared to other similar cities.

“It's not hard to get a triple-digit increase in New York City, but on a per capita basis, that may be a very small outlier compared to a smaller city that has a much higher per capita crime rate, but the numbers sound lower,” Butts said.

Problems with reporting crimes can also complicate data collection.

“In some areas, there are frequent attacks that people simply don't report,” Butts said, citing fears related to communicating with police.

The NYPD did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the increase in reported aggravated assault crimes or steps the department is taking to address them.

Getting to the bottom of the perpetrators of these attacks and tackling the problem is difficult, say experts.

“Most of the time it's a moment when they lose control, and those moments are caused by stress in their lives,” Butts said. “So it could be housing issues, income issues, trauma in the family. Look at things like the relationship between victim and perpetrator. If it's stranger against stranger, is it between groups? Is it between families? Is it related to drug or alcohol use?”

Glazer said the influx of migrants into New York City is unlikely to be a factor in the increase in serious assaults.

“The number of migrants [is] not enough to drive the numbers up as much as they have,” Glazer said, noting that most of the new migrants arrived in the city after the upward trend in serious assault cases had already begun.

Glazer said more research is needed to bring crime in the city back to pre-pandemic levels.

“I think it's worth taking a closer look at where these incidents are happening and at what time,” she said. “How is this different from previous years?”