Paetongtarn takes the helm as Thailand's new Prime Minister and faces a trial by fire

Thailand's parliament made history on Friday when it elected Paetongtarn Shinawatra, a political newcomer, as the country's youngest prime minister, just a day after she was thrust into the spotlight amid a bitter power struggle among the country's established elites.

At 37, the daughter of controversial political titan Thaksin Shinawatra secured a decisive victory in the parliamentary elections. Now she faces a trial by fire: She takes office just two days after her ally Srettha Thavisin was ousted as prime minister by a judiciary that played a central role in Thailand's two decades of political unrest.

For Paetongtarn, the issue could be the legacy and political future of the billionaire Shinawatra family, whose once unstoppable populist power suffered its first electoral defeat in over two decades last year and had to reach an agreement with its arch-enemies in the military to form a government.

She will be Thailand's second female prime minister and the third Shinawatra to take the top job, after her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra and her father Thaksin, the country's most influential and polarizing politician.

Paetongtarn won easily with 319 votes, or nearly two-thirds of the vote. She was not present in Parliament and watched the vote from her Pheu Thai party seat.

Her first public comment on the victory was an Instagram post of her lunch – chicken rice – with the caption: “First meal after listening to the vote.”

Paetongtarn has never served in government, and the decision to put her in office is a gamble for her Pheu Thai and its 75-year-old figurehead, Thaksin.

It will immediately face challenges on several fronts: the economy is weakening, competition from a rival party is growing and the Pheu Thai party's popularity is waning as it has failed to implement its main cash program worth 500 billion baht ($14.25 billion).

“The Shinawatras' maneuver is risky,” said Nattabhorn Buamahakul, managing partner of government consulting firm Vero Advocacy. “It puts Thaksin's daughter in the crosshairs and in a vulnerable position.”

Hostile climate

Srettha's ouster after less than a year in office will be a stark reminder of the kind of hostility Paetongtarn can expect. Thailand is stuck in a vicious cycle of coups and court rulings that have dissolved political parties and toppled numerous governments and prime ministers.

The Shinawatras and their business allies have borne the brunt of the crisis, which pits parties with broad appeal against a powerful network of conservatives, old-money families and royalist generals with close ties to key institutions.

Nine days ago, the same court that dismissed Srettha over a cabinet appointment also dissolved the anti-establishment Move Forward party, the winner of the 2023 election. The party had campaigned for a change to a law against insulting the crown, saying it threatened to undermine the constitutional monarchy.

The hugely popular opposition, Pheu Thai's main challenger, has since regrouped under a new umbrella, the People's Party.

The unrest of the past few days also points to a breakdown of the fragile truce between Thaksin and his rivals in the establishment and the old military guard, which had allowed the tycoon to make his dramatic return from self-imposed exile in 2023 after 15 years and enabled his ally Srettha to be appointed prime minister the same day.

Thaksin's gamble with Paetongtarn at such a critical time surprised many analysts. They had expected Thaksin to delay building his dynasty and avoid exposing his daughter to the struggles that led to his own downfall and that of his sister Yingluck, both of whom fled abroad to avoid prison after their governments were overthrown by the military.

“This is a big gamble for Thaksin. There is a possibility that she will fail and that is a big risk for the entire Shinawatra dynasty,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University. “If she cannot get the economy going again and revive the party, that could be the end because the People's Party is gaining momentum after its dissolution.”

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