Fantasy Court: The Case Against Rachaad White in 2024 (Fantasy Football)

This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Be sure to read “The Case FOR Rachaad White” by Dan Lovi to get the opposing view.

Opening speech

Here we are again, in fantasy court, debating the merits of a running back who has had fantasy success based on pure volume and the fraud of dump-off pass catching in PPR formats. While finishing as the RB7 in 2023 was quite an accomplishment and should not be ignored, I'm here today to convince you to avoid Rachaad White in the 2024 fantasy football drafts.

Fragile efficiency

White has been the epitome of an inefficient running back since entering the league. Over the past two seasons, 14 running backs have carried the ball at least 400 times. Of those 14, White has the lowest average per run at 3.7 yards per attempt, tied with Ezekiel Elliott. That rate actually dropped to 3.6 yards per attempt in 2024.

We can dig deeper and find more statistical evidence that White is not a talented running back at the NFL level. His 2.53 yards after contact per attempt ranked him 42nd out of 49 running backs with at least 100 carries last season. His 13.8% breakaway rate ranked him 41st in the same group.

So it's clear that White isn't a great runner. I can already hear my detractors saying that doesn't matter because White is so good in the air. I disagree, at least from a regression perspective. Again, the stats aren't in White's favor. There were 21 running backs who were targeted at least 50 times last season. Of those 21 backs, White had the third-highest yards/rec (8.6) behind James Cook (10.1) and Samaje Perine (9.1). That's all well and good, but the fact that he averaged just 5.8 yards/rec in 2022 suggests significant regression in 2024.

Volume is not a guarantee

White has earned fantasy points through frequent use to this point in his career. His 515 touches rank 11th over the past two seasons. Last year, he touched the ball 336 times, just three fewer than league leader Christian McCaffrey. But while CMC scored 1.06 fantasy points per touch, White only managed 0.70 fantasy points per touch. What if the coaches in Tampa Bay decide White isn't worthy of such a heavy load?

With head coach Todd Bowles returning, former offensive coordinator Dave Canales has taken over as head coach in Carolina. He seemed determined to get White the ball as often as possible, especially through the air. White was targeted 70 times in 2023, 22 more than he was as a rookie, with Byron Leftwich calling the plays as offensive coordinator. Now Liam Coen is coming to town and will be White's third offensive coordinator in his third season in the league.

Coen comes from the Rams, whose running backs haven't been used nearly as much in the air. Below are their most targeted running backs over the last four seasons.

Coen was on the Los Angeles team in 2020 and the offensive coordinator in 2022. In between, he also served twice as offensive coordinator in the college ranks at Kentucky. In those two seasons, the Wildcats' most-targeted running backs were targeted just 12 and 35 times, respectively. It goes without saying that Coen has not used running backs in the air in the past.

The design value is important

Drafting White wouldn't be so bad if you didn't have to spend so much money to get him. He is currently taken off the board as the RB13 in the fourth round. That means you have to draft him as a fantasy starter. That may sound reasonable until you realize the other options you have at running back in that area. They include Josh Jacobs, Isiah Pacheco, James Cook and Joe Mixon. The common denominator of these four is that they are all rated as good offensive players. As Mike said in the 10 tips and tricks Conclusion: It's important to target players in good offensive situations. Tampa Bay finished 20th in scoring last season and could fare even worse this year after the departure of Dave Canales.

Closing argument

In closing, I'll sum up everything I've laid out. Rachaad White is a below-average NFL running back with some of the worst efficiency metrics in the league. He was admittedly great for fantasy managers in 2023, but he got there thanks to his massive volume. It's unlikely that that usage will repeat in 2024, especially through the air. To make matters worse, you have to spend a valuable draft pick on him when there are far better options available. An inefficient running back who is due for negative regression in a bad offense is a recipe for fantasy disaster. I strongly recommend that all fantasy managers avoid Rachaad White this season.