Badgers' Best, Worst and Most Likely Game-by-Game Scenarios: Part I

With the new football season just around the corner, it's the perfect time for a series that examines the best, worst and most likely scenarios for the Wisconsin Badgers for each game.

I'll start with games one through three, which include a few (hopefully) easy tests, followed by a high-level matchup that will tell us a lot about where the Badgers stand in 2024.

(Note: When I say worst case or best case, it's not meant to be taken literally, like all 11 offensive players leaving the game with torn ACLs. It's a best/worst case in the larger context of something that's plausible.)

Game 1 (West Michigan)

Best-Case: Wisconsin gets off to a lightning start (as they rarely have in 2023) and builds a solid halftime lead as they simply overwhelm their visitors from the MAC, with Tyler Van Dyke also getting to show off his arm as the running game clicks.

The reserve players on offense and defense play most of the second half and the Badgers finish with an encouraging 49-13 victory over the Broncos with all players remaining healthy.

Worst-case scenario: The supposedly inferior guests keep the Badgers at bay and at halftime the score is 13:13.

WMU's Jalen Buckley looks like the best RB on the field, Phil Longo's Air Raid resembles the 2023 version, and the revamped Badger defense misses way too many tackles on the road to Wisconsin, where they beat the Broncos 27-20.

To make matters worse, two Wisconsin players are out with multi-week injuries. Alabama can't wait to head to Madison in two short weeks.

Most likely: The Broncos held on valiantly to the Badgers for over a quarter, but Van Dyke took advantage of an inferior secondary with two scores in the first half (one to Pauling and one to Green), and Wisconsin rode its offensive line and running backs in the second half to a solid, if unspectacular, 38-16 victory.

The offense looks crisper and more dangerous than in 2023, and the defense is also coping better and putting more pressure on the quarterback than last season.

Yes, it's a mediocre MAC team, but almost everyone is happy with this win.

Game 2 (South Dakota)

Best-Case: I've always made it clear that it's never a good idea for the Badgers to play FCS teams. It's all downside and no upside, and it pains me to see another game on the schedule.

So the best case scenario is to stay healthy and not have a game that's even remotely close. Let's say 49-9.

It may also be valuable to get most of our two players in some practice before Bama visits next week, but that shouldn't require an FCS opponent.

Worst-case scenario: A close game against a team outside of the Power 4 is a brutal way to spend a Saturday in September, but South Dakota is no lightweight, having made it to the FCS quarterfinals just last season, so this is far from impossible.

In this version of events, South Dakota hangs with the Badgers, forcing them to keep their starters on the court much longer than expected and squeaking out a second-half win, say 31-23.

At least the fans of the 3/4 full student block stayed until the end, after a very exciting Jumping around. Just no fun at all.

Most likely: The Coyotes show why they were an FCS power, but also why they play in the FCS and not the FBS, and the Badgers top them with a clear but imperfect 37-13 victory.

Fick's guys come away with a few bumps and bruises but remain mostly healthy, and Longo's offense, particularly the two-man running back committee of Chez Mellusi and Tawee Walker, gives South Dakota's front line a very long day, as each of them rushed for over eight yards and scored two touchdowns.

Overall, it was a nice performance from Wisconsin, but they will have to make a big jump in a short amount of time to keep up with Alabama next week.

Game 3 (Alabama)

Best case: In a landmark win for Luke Fickell and his team, the Badgers outplay an elite Alabama team for four quarters (it says it all that the Tide feels disrespected by being ranked No. 5 by the AP in the preseason) and somehow manage to eke out a 31-30 victory, setting the tone for the challenging Big Ten schedule ahead.

It's no exaggeration to say this is one of the biggest wins in program history, accomplished by an improbable late touchdown drive by Van Dyke in the fourth quarter after Bama erased a 24-16 deficit on the third quarterback to take a 30-24 lead with 4:20 left.

Bucky's victory is sealed by a Nyzier Fourqurean interception by Jalen Milroe with 35 seconds left. Pure euphoria in Madison.

Worst-case scenario: All the excitement that could be expected for an 11:00 a.m. game at Camp Randall is quickly expelled from the stadium after Bama jumps out to a 17-3 lead in the first quarter.

The Badgers fight valiantly, but the talent and depth of the SEC's superior team is too great, and Wisconsin leaves the field with a 38-13 loss.

They must quickly forget that, because next weekend there is an exciting rematch against USC in the 2015 Holiday Bowl.

Most likely: Wisconsin is well prepared and has the perfect mindset to face this elite opponent. They trade blows with Bama (including a couple of sacks from Milroe) and keep the game close until the fourth quarter, where the Crimson Tide's talent, athleticism and relentless physicality end up being a little too much.

Wisconsin definitely has its head held high after the 31-21 loss. But even with this bitter defeat, the question of whether the Badgers can play with top teams is a yes.

While this result is disappointing, it bodes well for the rest of their demanding 2024 schedule and shows that the Badgers have made a remarkable leap since 2023.

Stay tuned for part 2!