Non-farm job creation for the 12 months to March revised downward by 818,000, from 2.90 million to 2.08 million jobs created

An average of 173,500 wage and salaried jobs were created per month over the past 12 months, up from 242,000 but above the 2018-19 average of 171,900: preliminary annual benchmark revisions.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics today released its preliminary estimate for the annual benchmark revision due in February for the number of nonfarm jobs created during the 12-month period from April 2023 to March 2024.

The BLS today revised down the number of nonfarm jobs created in the 12-month period ending March 2024 by 818,000, from the previous figure of 2.90 million to 2.082 million.

This revised figure represents an average of 173,500 new wage jobs created per month over the 12-month period. While this is lower than the unrevised average of 242,000 per month, it is higher than the average job creation during the two years before the pandemic, 2018 and 2019 (an average of +171,900 per month), reflecting a labor market that has normalized to the growth of the good times before the pandemic.

Upward revisions: Job creation was revised upwards in five main categories, led by private education and health (+87,000) and transport and warehousing (+56,400).

Downward revisions: Job creation in other categories was revised downwards, led by the categories “Professional and business services” (-358,000) and “Leisure and hospitality” (-150,000).

Each year, the BLS compares its employment estimates in the Current Employment Statistics (CES)—which compiles the nonfarm jobs data from the Establishment Survey in the Employment Report—with the state Unemployment Insurance (UI) records that most employers are required to file.

The establishment survey data in the monthly employment report are not updated with these preliminary revisions. Instead, they are updated with the final revisions, which include monthly details and are released in February. We will cover this with a two-line chart, as we have in previous years, using one color for the new, revised data and another color for the old data. The final revisions have differed significantly from the preliminary estimates in the past.

In previous years, the final benchmark revisions were published in February:

• For 2021 and 2022, final benchmark revisions, total +840,000
• For 2023, final benchmark revisions: -359,000

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