Old simulation video mistakenly shared as August 2024 Japan earthquake

Old Japanese government footage from 2016 simulating the potential impact of a powerful earthquake was falsely portrayed online as showing the quake that struck the south of the country in August 2024. Japan warned of a potentially devastating “mega-earthquake” after the recent 7.1 magnitude quake before lifting the warning a week later.

The 10-second footage – which appears to show objects falling from shaking buildings – was posted on TikTok on August 21, 2024.

Korean text superimposed on it read: “Earthquake in Japan on August 8, 2024. Precursor to the Great Nankai Earthquake.”

The post was published days after the powerful 7.1 magnitude The earthquake struck Miyazaki Prefecture in southwestern Japan on August 8, 2024, injuring at least 15 people.

The country's weather agency outputD its first-ever “megaquake” warning for a massive quake along the Nankai Trough – between two tectonic plates in the Pacific Ocean – but the warning was lifted on August 15 (archived link).

The video was shared on YouTube and the South Korean forums Ilbe and DC Inside, along with similar false claims.

In fact, it is a simulation of a mega-earthquake in the Nankai Trough, published by the Japanese government in 2016.

Simulation video

A reverse image search revealed that the clip was an excerpt from a 17-minute video These include simulations of an earthquake in the Nankai Trough published by the Cabinet Office of the Japanese government (archived link).

The clip circulating corresponds to the 3:29 to 3:39 mark in the longer 2016 footage.

Below is a screenshot comparison between the clip shared in the fake posts (left) and the video released by the Japanese government (right):

An English version of the video was released on YouTube on April 28, 2022 (archived link).

“The region along the Nankai Trough has experienced a major earthquake with a magnitude of 8 to 9 approximately every 100 to 150 years,” the text said.

“The predicted probability of an earthquake of magnitude 8 to 9 occurring in the next 30 years is about 70%. In the worst case scenario, this earthquake is estimated to kill 323,000 people.”

It continues: “What will we see when that happens? Let's look at a simulation based on the final report of a working group studying countermeasures for the Nankai Trough earthquake.”

The simulation made headlines in press reports in Japan, south Korea And Taiwan which underlined the video's devastating prediction (archived links Here, Here And Here).

“The Japanese government has released a video simulating a magnitude 9.0 earthquake,” said the news report from South Korean broadcaster Channel A.

“The video, which estimates that up to 320,000 people could die in such a disaster, has sent shockwaves throughout Japan.”

AFP has previously debunked similar misinformation that circulated online following the August 2024 earthquake.