Gas prices have fallen. But how long will this last?

Good news for drivers: gasoline prices are falling.

The national average price of regular gasoline at the pump was $3.37 a gallon on Friday, down about 13 cents from a month ago and nearly 50 cents from a year ago, according to data from AAA. Barring unexpected obstacles, experts expect prices to continue falling through the end of the year.

“If you want to go somewhere, it's a great weekend because prices are going in the right direction,” said AAA spokesman Andrew Gross. “They're dropping almost a penny a day now.”

A customer fills up a car at Kwik Trip, 2900 Holy Hill Rd., in Richfield, Wisconsin, on Tuesday, May 10, 2022.

Why are gas prices low?

For most of the summer, the national average price of regular gasoline “has barely managed to deviate from the $3.50 per gallon mark,” Gross said. AAA data shows prices in June and July ranged from $3.44 to $3.54.

“Now it's suddenly tipped,” Gross said, adding that prices haven't been this low since March.

Consumers have lower oil prices to thank.

“As oil prices have fallen over the last month or so, we're seeing prices at the pump follow suit,” said Matt Smith, oil analyst at commodities data firm Kpler.

West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, has fallen more than 10% since early July. Weaker oil demand in China – one of the world's biggest oil consumers – amid a slowing economy has helped push down oil prices, as have ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, Smith said.

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Will gas prices continue to fall?

Although prices at the pump are improving, there are a number of circumstances that could lead to a reversal of the trend.

This year's hurricane season has been relatively quiet, but it doesn't end until November 30. And experts say there's still a chance that geopolitical tensions will escalate and drive up oil prices.

But barring a major hurricane that hits U.S. oil refineries or a “global catastrophe,” Gross said, prices at the pump are likely to “continue to fall steadily” through the end of the year, especially as refineries begin switching from summer gasoline to cheaper winter blends in September.

“I think consumers can expect more of the same going forward. So we'll see prices come down a little from here,” Smith said. While he's not convinced prices will fall below $3 a gallon this year, the trends are “a good thing for our wallets.”

Where are gas prices cheapest?

The states with the lowest gasoline prices per gallon, according to AAA data as of Friday, include:

Mississippi: $2.92
Oklahoma: $2.94
Tennessee: $2.96
Texas: $2.97
South Carolina: $3.00

However, in some states the price still averages over $3.50 per gallon.

Hawaii: $4.66
California: $4.59
Washington: $4.19
Nevada: $3.96
Oregon: $3.82

Gas prices have fallen. But how long will this last?

Why are gas prices low?

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