NFL Week 1 Fantasy Football: Kick-off, Seat Stop

• Daniel Prescott has a tough matchup in Week 1: Prescott expects a very good The Cleveland Browns Defense in Week 1. The Cowboys quarterback struggled to produce good fantasy numbers against top-10 defenses last season.

• Chuba Hubbard is the clear starter for the Carolina Panthers: With Jonathon Brooks Hubbard will step in as a potential fantasy starter for the first four weeks of the season.

• Take advantage of a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our fantasy tools throughout the season, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Starting Sit Optimizer and more. Register now!

Estimated reading time: 15 minutes

Deciding who should start or sit can be as simple as checking PFF rankings and the choice of the higher-ranked player. This Start/Sit column goes a step further and looks at why a typical starter might struggle in a given week or why an overlooked player might perform well. While common starters often remain the best choice, we also focus on those fringe players who are worth considering.

Click here to jump to a position:
QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K

QUARTERBACKS

START

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Daniels should be a fantasy starter every week, regardless of his opponent.

Daniels earned a PFF rushing grade of 91.5 during his college career, the highest among Power Five quarterbacks over the past decade. He is also the leader at the position in forced missed tackles during that same time period.

In addition to his superior running ability, Daniels was called upon to run far more often than any other quarterback. He completed 258 rushing attempts in his career – the most in the last decade. The next player had just 180.

This could lead to Daniels making more rushing attempts and big runs than other running quarterbacks. Every quarterback with 100 or more rushing attempts over the past 10 years has averaged at least 18 fantasy points per start – a number Daniels should easily reach.

His passing skills should not be underestimated either, as he best mechanics of all passers in the class. He posted a respectable 84.0 passing grade in college, and while we shouldn't expect him to reach Jalen Hurts' current level as a passer, he could very well be better than Hurts was as a rookie.

The commanders are faced with a Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense, the allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. He should be in the starting lineup even if the defense would be more difficult, but this presents an even better opportunity.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

The Lions will face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1 without Aaron Donald. And according to PFF Schedule Strength Toolthis is the seventh best QB duel of the week.

The Rams allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

The bears meet the Tennessee Titanswhich as a team recorded the fourth fewest pressures, sacks and hits last season.

Last season, Tennessee's leader in pressure Denico Autrywho is no longer in the squad. His successor, Sebastian Joseph-Day, recorded a career high of 25 pressure situations in 2023.

Last year at USC, Williams earned a passing grade of 93.4 when not under pressure, but that dropped to 38.9 when under pressure.

SIT

Daniel Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Prescott's fantasy performance was highly inconsistent last year. He finished in the top four quarterbacks in seven games, but was QB16 or worse in seven more games, and only finished between QB5 and QB15 three times.

His success was largely tied to the quality of the opposing defense. In games where he finished in the top four, he faced defenses that were average to among the worst in allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks, with an average ranking of 24. Conversely, in all five games against top-10 defenses that prevented fantasy points to quarterbacks, Prescott finished outside the top 15.

According to our schedule tool, the Cowboys have the sixth-worst quarterback matchup this week.

The Browns allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. The team retained Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator and nine of the 10 defensive backs who played at least 500 snaps last season are still on the roster. The Browns should remain one of the best defenses this season, which will limit Prescott's performance in Week 1.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

According to our schedule tool, the 49ers have the worst QB matchup of the week. The Jets allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks last season.

Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

The Jets have the second worst matchup for quarterbacks this weekaccording to our Schedule Strength Tool. The 49ers allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks last season.

RUNNINGBACKS

START

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers

Hubbard gradually emerged as the Panthers' star back last season. Starting in Week 12, he was the go-to back in every situation, playing at least 64% of the snaps in every game, including over 80% in one. During that time, he finished the final seven games as RB27 or better, with two top-12 fantasy finishes.

The Panthers drafted Jonathon Brooks as their running back of the future, but he is still injured and will miss at least the first four games of the season, putting Hubbard back at the top of the rankings.

Carolina had its regular players play a drive in the preseason. Hubbard played 10 of 12 offensive snaps, with Miles Sanders take the other two.

It's possible that the Panthers didn't plan on rotating their running backs much in the preseason, suggesting that Hubbard and Sanders could be more evenly split. However, Sanders was limited in practice on Wednesday due to a finger injury, which could result in Hubbard actually playing more than usual in Week 1.

The Panthers are facing a New Orleans Saints Defense that was Average against the running game last season. Four of the Saints' six linebackers appeared on the initial injury list, including two backups who missed practice. With this matchup expected to be more competitive than most of the Panthers' games last season, Carolina should have the opportunity to focus on the running game.

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