UEFA Nations League, Friday, 6 September

Football betting tips: UEFA Nations League

1.5 points, both teams score a “no” in the match France vs Italy (19:45) at 10/11 (William Hill)

1 point Orkun Kokcu receives a card in the game Wales vs Türkiye (19:45) at 4/1 (Sky Bet)

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France vs Italy

I look at Italy's team and ask myself, 'Where are the goals going to come from?' That's exactly the same thought I had at the European Championships, where they were knocked out with a whimper.

They scored twice against Albania and needed a late equaliser against Croatia to qualify, but in both games they were dominated and kept at bay by Spain and Switzerland.

Giacomo Raspadori (six international goals), Moise Kean (four), Mateo Retegui (four) and Mattia Zaccagni (four) are the strikers in the current squad.

This immediately made me look for goals against, and I think the best approach is BOTH TEAMS SCORES “NO”.

The odds for a clean sheet for France are 5/4, which was tempting, but by betting on BTTS No we have the certainty that Italy will keep a clean sheet or the game will end goalless.

Les Bleus have not been particularly attacking at the Euros and have struggled to score goals, but they have been excellent defensively. Didier Deschamps' side have suffered a BTTS no in four of their six games in Germany and a repeat of that result is likely in this closely fought match, no matter what many say about the competition.

Wales vs Türkiye

There is really no sympathy between these two teams. They have played against each other three times since 2021, once at Euro 2020 and twice in qualifying for Euro 2024.

There were a total of 16 yellow cards and one red card in these three games and I expect it to be as exciting as the games between Wales and Turkey, especially because both teams are trying to get into Nations League A and Wales are taking their first steps under Craig Bellamy.

The referee for this match is Norwegian Rohit Saggi, who showed an average of 4.13 cards per game and showed nine yellow cards in a recent Champions League qualifier.

I will target the Türkiye attacking midfielder ORKUN KOKCU IS BOXED on 4/1.

The midfielder received two yellow cards at the Euros and has a total of eight yellow cards in 32 international matches for Turkey – an average of 0.25 per 90 minutes. That hit rate would translate into odds of 3/1, so given the refereeing appointment and the heated nature of recent encounters between these two, the potential price seems high.

I must also mention that he has already received two cards in four games for Benfica this season.

Already recommended

2 points Erling Haaland scores a goal anytime in the match Kazakhstan vs Norway (15:00) at 4/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

Kazakhstan vs Norway

Kazakhstan have been incredibly porous in recent years, losing their last three friendlies against Luxembourg, Armenia and Azerbaijan and conceding seven goals.

In the European Championship qualifiers against teams that are not called San Marino (and who at least scored a goal in Kazakhstan) or against a weak team from Northern Ireland, the Kazakhs conceded eleven goals in six matches.

Norway were unlucky not to qualify for the European Championships, producing the second-best numbers in their qualifying group, finishing behind eventual winners Spain and eventual group flops Scotland, who were the biggest high-flyers in qualifying.

They finished 13th according to the overall xG process, ahead of teams like Belgium and Turkey, while achieving an average xGF of 1.64 per game.

With a solid squad that includes some excellent players, it is no surprise to see them win at 4/9 in this Nations League opener, but the jump to 4/5 for the Cyborg Erling Haaland can score at any time looks like a great bet.

The Manchester City striker has started the season in top form after a summer break, scoring seven goals in three league games. Given his record for Norway is an absolutely ridiculous 31 goals in 33 appearances (!!!), I'm astonished that we're getting him at 4/5. He's normally priced at 4/6 and at BetVictor he's even 1/2.

He scored six goals in five Euro 2024 qualifiers, six in six Nations League matches in 22/23, five in six World Cup qualifiers in 2022 and six in four Nations League matches in 20/21. That's an incredible record, but we shouldn't really be surprised by now.

Odds correct at 13:30 BST (24.09.04)

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