The risk of development for tropical regions in the Atlantic is concentrated in areas near the USA until next week

Following the impacts of tropical rainstorms in the southeastern United States and Atlantic Canada through Saturday, AccuWeather meteorologists predict the next tropical threats will be in the western Gulf of Mexico next week and possibly in the waters off the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas.

Early September is peak hurricane season in the Atlantic, but the most important development areas off the coast of Africa continue to struggle.

While this zone will remain under observation due to its reputation for producing storms, AccuWeather meteorologists will turn their attention to areas relatively close to the southeastern United States into next week.

This weekend, a severe tropical rainstorm will move through Atlantic Canada, bringing rain, gusty winds and rough seas.

A separate tropical rainstorm that brought several inches of rain from central Texas to the U.S. Gulf Coast last weekend through Friday will continue to rain the southeastern corner of the U.S. through Saturday night. However, that storm has split into two parts.

One part will be a slow-moving, weak low pressure system that meanders and lingers off the southern Atlantic coast into next week, the other part will remain over the western Gulf of Mexico.

Wind shear or disruptive breezes will likely limit or possibly prevent the storm from escalating off the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas this weekend. However, there is less disruptive wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico, and that could be enough for the current tropical rainstorm center to slowly strengthen through the middle of next week.

The tropical rainstorm in the western Gulf will likely be strengthened by a tropical depression moving from the Caribbean into Central America and southern Mexico early next week. This strengthening could be the impetus for the tropical rainstorm to develop into a tropical depression and perhaps a named tropical storm.

AccuWeather uses the term “tropical rainstorm” to refer to tropical systems that have the potential to produce significant rain and wind impacts prior to their official classification as a tropical depression or tropical storm, to alert the public to their destructive, disruptive, and dangerous potential. Not all tropical rainstorms develop into a depression or tropical storm.

While directional breezes over the western Gulf will remain light through the weekend and the current tropical rain storm center will linger, a wind change is expected for the coming week, causing the rain event to move northward into the south-central states.

Residents along the coasts of Texas, Louisiana and eastern Mexico, as well as offshore oil and fishing operations, should monitor the situation closely as there is a potential for a strengthening tropical storm in the region.

Regardless of tropical development and strengthening, the storm will bring heavy rains to much of the Gulf Coast during the first half of next week, following a weekend lull. Since many of these areas have already received several inches of rain in recent days, there is an increased risk of flooding.

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In the hilly regions of southeastern Mexico and parts of Central America, the effects of the tropical wave approaching from the Caribbean may trigger mudslides as well as flash floods.

How far north the rain will penetrate the south-central states will depend on the direction and strength of the tropical phenomenon in the western Gulf next week. Its path into the middle Mississippi and Ohio valleys will likely be blocked by a dome of high pressure that will bring significant late summer heat.

Heavy rains are needed across much of the central states because water levels on the middle and lower Mississippi and other rivers in the region are at critically low levels, as they have been at times this time each of the past two years. The Mississippi and Ohio are often used to transport grain and other commodities inexpensively by tugboats and barges. While dry and warm conditions are good for crops, low water levels can hinder cheap barge transportation.

Thousands of miles to the east over the tropical Atlantic, tropical low pressure systems continue to move westward from Africa. But instead of thriving in warm waters and moisture from the Atlantic upon arrival, these systems continue to struggle with areas of dry air and wind shear.

Persistent dry air and wind shear, as well as warm air high in the atmosphere, are keeping these phenomena in check. There is also a buzzsaw-like storm east of the Caribbean. Its wind shear would likely tear apart any nascent tropical wave as it approaches from the east next week.

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