Cable TV loses 1.6 million subscribers in the second quarter

That's very bad! But not as bad as other Q2s, like in 2023 when the industry lost 1.7 million subscribers, or in 2022 when it lost 1.8 million subscribers.

And more good news for the television industry… well, that's it.

The 1.6 million subscribers lost in the second quarter represent 6.9% of the industry base, and there is no reason to believe the decline will slow at all, write Craig Moffett and Michael Nathanson of MoffettNathanson: “It is becoming increasingly clear that there is no longer any Floor.”

As we've discussed here before, a few years ago there was a perception that digital pay-TV providers like YouTube TV and Hulu + Live TV would make up for losses at traditional providers. But that's no longer true.

And these digital distributors are increasingly experiencing “seasonality” in their business – consumers log on to them in the fall to watch the NFL and switch back at the start of the year. That's why YouTube TV lost subscribers for the first time in the first quarter and was only able to gain 50,000 new subscribers in the second quarter. In the same quarter last year, the service was able to gain 300,000 new subscribers.

And while we're on the subject of sports, Moffett and Nathanson talk a lot about Venu, the sports streamer that was supposed to launch last month but was put on hold indefinitely by a federal judge.

The companies behind Venu – Warner Bros. Discovery, Disney and Fox – have argued that their channel package would appeal to people who don't pay for cable. But it's very likely that many of their customers are existing cable subscribers switching from a more expensive channel package to Venu's “stripped down” package. That means even if Venu eventually launches, it won't help the cable industry stem its losses.

But Moffett and Nathanson now doubt that Venu's owners will ultimately contest the lawsuit that has put their launch on hold. Like my colleague James Faris, they believe the lawsuit could overturn the industry's longstanding practice of “bundling” channels – meaning that a cable TV provider that wants to sell Disney's ESPN must also sell Disney-owned channels like Disney or ABC in the same package.

And if that happened, things would fully Collapse of the industry.

A Venu representative declined to comment. Last week, ESPN CEO Jimmy Pitaro defended the Venu package to a group of reporters and promised that his company would continue to fight the lawsuit. But that's only true until the day it doesn't.

Correction: September 4, 2024 – An earlier version of this story misidentified one of the companies behind Venu. Venu is owned by Warner Bros. Discovery, not Comcast.