Top tips from the CFB betting splits for Saturday, September 7

Week 2 of the college football season is here, with a jam-packed schedule of over 100 Saturday games. You can follow the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup with our VSiN betting splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

In the meantime, let's examine where the smart money is trending on a handful of games today.

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Texas (1-0, Ranked 3) beat Colorado State 52-0 in its season opener and easily scored as a 34-point favorite at home. Michigan (1-0, Ranked 10) swept Fresno State 30-10 but couldn't score as a 21.5-point favorite at home. This line started with Texas as a 3.5-point favorite on the road. The public is betting on the Longhorns, with 73% of spread bets and 75% of spread dollars going to the points. This heavily lopsided support pushed Texas up from -3.5 to -7.5. However, when the hook was available, we saw a strong buyback at Michigan +7.5 as well as +7, which brought the line back to +6.5 where it stands now. Essentially, all late moves, especially in the last 24 hours, break back toward Michigan and the points. The Wolverines are one of the day's best contrarians, receiving just 27% of spread bets in the day's most-bet nationally televised game. Michigan has correlative betting value as a touchdown underdog in a low-score total game (41.5), with the lower number of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. The Wolverines have inflated buy-low line value because the opening number was +3.5 and bettors can now bet on a Michigan touchdown. The Wolverines also have buy-low, sell-high value as an underdog that didn't cover the previous week, playing against a favorite that did. The pros have hit the floor as well, lowering the total from 45.5 to 41.5. This move is notable because 81% of the bets are on the over limit, but the point total has dropped, evidence that the pros are betting on a lower scoring game. The forecast calls for high 50s with partly cloudy skies and 13 mph winds at Michigan Stadium.

Kansas State (1-0, 17th ranked) outscored UT Martin 41-6 in its season opener but failed to score as a 36-point home favorite. Tulane (1-0), on the other hand, crushed Southeast Louisiana 52-0 and easily scored as a 27-point home favorite. This line opened with Kansas State as a 10.5-point away favorite. The public is expecting an easy win and a point-for-point bet for Kansas State, and 75% of spread bets are on the Wildcats scoring. Despite this lopsided support, however, Kansas State has fallen from -10.5 to -8.5. Why would the bookies lower the number to make it easier for the public to score when they're already crushing Kansas State? Because professional money has flowed on Tulane plus the points at home, triggering a sharp reverse line move in their favor. Tulane receives just 25% of the spread bets, offering notable contrarian value in a heavily wagered ESPN game. Tulane has low buy and high sell value as an unranked underdog against a ranked opponent. The Green Wave have a two-day rest advantage, having last played on Thursday, while Kansas State last played on Saturday. Wiseguys also won the under, bringing the total down from 50 to 47. The under receives just 18% of the bets, but 42% of the dollars, a sharp contrarian betting split in the spirit of “low bets, higher dollars.” The forecast calls for temperatures around 75 degrees with 10 mph winds and possibly some rain at Yulman Stadium.

Iowa State (1-0) just beat North Dakota 21-3 in its season opener but failed to impress as a 30-point home favorite. Iowa (1-0, ranked 21st), on the other hand, just beat Illinois State 40-0 and is confident as a 22-point home favorite. This line opened with Iowa as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the counter to see Iowa lose at home. Despite 85% of spread bets backing the Hawkeyes, this line has barely moved from Iowa -2.5 to -3. Some shops still stand at Iowa -2.5. And all other bookies are betting Iowa State +3 at -115. Reading between the lines, we see a strong contrarian liability for Iowa State at the key +3 number, as the line has barely moved despite the overwhelming support for Iowa. The Cyclones only account for 15% of spread bets, making them the top player of the day to bet against the public. Iowa State has good buy and sell value as an unranked road dog against a ranked opponent, as well as an underdog that didn't score the previous week against a favorite that did. Short road dogs +4 or less are 562-485 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2012.

Kansas (1-0, ranked 19th) just dominated Lindenwood 48-3 in its season opener but failed to score as a 49.5-point home favorite. Likewise, Illinois (1-0) just beat Eastern Illinois 45-0 and failed to score as a 29-point home favorite. This line started with Kansas as a 6-point away favorite. The public finds this line way too short and likes to put the points on Kansas. However, while we have received 74% of the spread bets, Kansas has fallen from -6 to -4.5. Some trades have even fallen toward -4. This suggests strong reverse line movement for Illinois plus the points as the line moves in their favor despite them being the unpopular side. Essentially all the movement and liability since the opener has gone to Illinois. Illinois is only receiving 26% of the spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game on FSI. The Fighting Illini have low buy and high sell value as an unranked home underdog against a ranked opponent. We could also see a higher-scoring game here, as the total has risen from 55.5 to 57.5. 62% of bets are on the Over, suggesting modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a two-point upward revision.