Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson Pick, 07.09.2024 Predictions UFC Vegas 97 Odds

Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson

UFC 97

UFC 226 in Las Vegas

Saturday, September 7, 2024

Steve Garcia will step into the Octagon with Kyle Nelson on Saturday, September 7, 2024, at UFC Vegas 97. Coming into the opening fight, Garcia is -185, Nelson is +154.

Steve “Mean Machine” Garcia enters the cage with a record of 16-5-0. The 32-year-old weighs 145 pounds and stands 6 feet tall. The left-hander stands 75 inches tall. Kyle “The Monster” Nelson stands 5 feet 11 inches tall and weighs 145 pounds. The switch fighter comes into this fight with a record of 16-5-1. The 33-year-old has a 71-inch wingspan. When it comes to significant strikes, Steve Garcia lands 5.00 per minute while Kyle Nelson lands 3.65 significant strikes per minute. Garcia lands 56% of the significant strikes he throws and Nelson lands 45%. As far as fighter defense goes, “Mean Machine” allows 2.51 significant strikes per minute and “The Monster” allows 4.69. Additionally, Garcia blocks 46% of the heavy punches fired at him, and Nelson blocks 52% of them.

In wrestling, Steve Garcia is the more skilled wrestler, as he puts his opponents on the mat 1.27 times per 3 rounds. Garcia puts his opponents on the mat on 40% of his attempts and blocks 88% of his opponents' takedown attempts. Nelson puts his opponents on the mat on 20% of his takedown attempts and blocks 73% of his opponents' takedown attempts. In terms of submission attempts, Garcia is the one who finishes the fight the least out of the two fighters, as he makes 0.6 submission attempts per 3 rounds while Nelson makes 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Get all our UFC betting tips

In his previous fight, Steve Garcia faced SeungWoo Choi and earned the win of the night by landing a blow to the head in Round 1. Choi ended up landing 9 of the 16 punches he threw in the fight. Garcia finished the night having landed 18 of the 34 punches thrown. In terms of significant punches, Choi landed 9 of 15, good for his 60% rate. He landed 7 of 13 significant punches to the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Garcia ended up landing 55% of his significant punches, landing 15 of 27. Of those significant punches, 10 of 19 were to the head. 100% of the significant punches thrown by Choi and 60% of the significant punches thrown by Garcia were counted from distance.

In Kyle Nelson's last fight, he faced Bill Algeo and earned the win by punch to the head in round 1. Algeo landed 100% of the significant punches he took from distance, while Nelson landed 87% of his significant punches from distance. Nelson landed 54% of the significant punches he attempted, landing 32 of 59. He ended up landing 20 of 45 significant punches to the head. Algeo landed 30 of 58 significant punches in this fight. Of those significant punches, he landed 11 of 34 aimed at the head. In terms of the total number of punches attempted in this fight, Algeo ended up landing 44 of 73 and Nelson landed 40 of 68 total punches.

Other fights to keep an eye on

Another fight to keep an eye on is Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa. Schnell will look to add a win to his career record of 16-8-0 (1 NC). The 34-year-old weighs in at 125 pounds and stands 5'8″. The orthodox fighter has a 70″ arm span. Costa is 5'4″ and weighs in at 125 pounds. The orthodox fighter enters the Octagon with a 14-4-0 record. The 28-year-old has a 67″ arm span. In terms of takedowns, Matt Schnell takes his opponents to the ground 0.59 times per 3 rounds while Alessandro Costa takes his opponents to the mat 0.27 times per 15 minutes. In terms of strikes, Schnell lands an average of 4.23 strikes per minute and lands 38% of all the strikes he attempts. The other fighter in this fight is Alessandro Costa, who lands 47% of his punch attempts and averages 4.14 punches per minute.

Another must-watch fight tonight is the Yanal Ashmouz vs. Trevor Peek bout. Peek comes into this fight with a record of 9-2-0 (1 NC). The 29-year-old weighs 155 pounds and stands 5'9″ tall. The switch fighter stands 70″ tall. Ashmouz stands 5'9″ tall and weighs 155 pounds. The orthodox fighter enters the Octagon with a record of 7-1-0. The 29-year-old has a 68″ wingspan. When grappling, Trevor Peek thwarts 54% of his opponents' takedowns and takes them down on 53% of his attempts. Ashmouz completes his takedown attempts on 50% of his attempts and is able to block 50% of his opponents' takedowns. As for striking, Peek takes 4.17 punches per minute and lands 4.58 punches per minute. Ashmouz also takes 5.35 hits per minute and dishes out 3.08 per minute.

Who will win today’s UFC fight against the spread?

Tony Sinks' pick: Take Kyle Nelson (+154)

Get $60 worth of FREE Premium Member Picks. No obligation. No salesperson. No credit card. Fast sign up with instant access. Click here