NFL Week 1 Odds, Tips, Best Bets

Even before the Giants' 2024 season begins, it must be like déjà vu again for quarterback Daniel Jones.

Just one year after signing a four-year, $160 million contract, rumors are already swirling about whether Jones is the Giants' long-term solution at the position.

The team has a potential opt-out depending on how his contract is structured. According to Spotrac, if the Giants release Jones before the 2025 season, the dead cap would drop from $69.3 million to a more manageable $22.2 million.

So Jones finds himself in the same situation again and now has to prove his doubters wrong.

Even though the market forecast for the Giants in 2024 is significantly pessimistic, they deserve a little more respect than playing as underdogs in Week 1 against a team that has one of the lowest win projections in the NFL this season.

Here is my game preview, prediction and selection for the Vikings vs. Giants duel on Sunday.

Odds for Vikings vs. Giants

Outlook for the Vikings

Don't get too carried away by what you see in the NFL in August.

JJ McCarthy, Minnesota's 2024 first-round pick, received glowing reviews for his lone preseason appearance in the Vikings' 24-23 win over Las Vegas.

The Michigan product completed 11 of 17 passes for 188 yards and threw two touchdowns and an interception. Unfortunately, he suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee during the game and will be out for the rest of the year.

The plan was for McCarthy to get some action in the preseason and serve as a backup to Sam Darnold, but it's entirely possible that McCarthy would have fought for the starting spot.

A former third-rounder in his first NFL season, Darnold is entering his seventh and is already on his fourth team. The Jets traded him to Carolina in 2021 because they knew they would never pick up his fifth-year option after three disappointing seasons in New York.

Darnold was unable to establish himself in his two seasons at Carolina and moved to San Francisco, where he supported Brock Purdy.

Should we suddenly consider Darnold a quarterback worthy of starting in the NFL?

Giants Outlook

Regardless of your opinion of Jones as a starting quarterback, he still led the Giants to a playoff spot in the 2022 season, even defeating the Vikings on the road in the wildcard round.

Jones was neck and neck with Kirk Cousins ​​in this game. Both quarterbacks played exceptionally well, achieving a QBR of at least 82.5.

The Giants simply had more possession and controlled the time of possession with their running game (33:36-26:24). Jones led New York's running attack with 78 yards on the ground.

When healthy, his dual threat ability makes him a handful for opposing teams to defend. The key words here are, of course, if healthy. Jones suffered a neck injury last year that sidelined him for three games and then tore his anterior cruciate ligament, ending his season in Week 9.

The problem is that the aftermath, or rather the PTSD, is so great that watching backup quarterback Tommy DeVito run around the backfield, it almost feels like this is the same Giants team from last season.

This is a good opportunity to buy cheap in Week 1 since New York is the underdog.

Tip: Vikings vs. Giants

We'll have plenty of time to get into the X's and O's as the season progresses, but for now, this is just a summary of Darnold.

According to Action Network, Darnold is 22-33-1 (40%) against the spread (ATS) as an NFL starting quarterback. And when his teams are heavily bet as a pick'em or favorite after starting, he is a miserable 0-4 ATS.

Betting on the NFL?

There is also an aspect of Week 1 that points to the value of underdogs, as they are 158-139-6 (53.2%) ATS all-time. The prevailing sentiment is that the start of a new season brings new hope and optimism even to the weaker teams.

If I had to choose between the two quarterbacks, I would much rather go with Jones than Darnold, who raises more questions than answers at this stage of his career.

Best Bet: Giants +2 (-112, DraftKings)