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NFL.com computer model predicts Denver Broncos will surpass their total number of wins in Las Vegas

How good an NFL team is in a given season must be decided on the field. While many people in the league focus on the Denver Broncos' current roster and predict another disappointing record in the Mile High City. Games aren't decided by how glamorous a team's roster looks.

Football matches are not won on paper. But what about on the computer?

Games have to be decided on the field, yes, but it's interesting to see how different analytics models try to capture a team and quantify its performance. The Broncos are probably one of the harder teams to evaluate this season, considering what an unknown rookie quarterback Bo Nix will be opening Week 1 in Seattle.

Because the Broncos raise so many questions, it will be difficult to truly grasp what the team will look like until a sample of actual games and meaningful data is collected. Nevertheless, NFL Networks analytics expert Cynthia Frelund tried just that.

How do the Broncos fare in a simulation with a million runs in every single game? Is this a team that can shock the NFL as a whole and compete in the AFC? Or will the Broncos be destined to finish near Vegas' 5.5 wins? According to the model, Denver is projected to win 6.4 games this season.

“Rookie Bo Nix won the Broncos' QB competition in camp and is projected to throw for at least 3,015 yards in 59 percent of my season simulations – just over 177 yards per game.

“Additionally, Denver's defense ranked 30th in the run game last year, but the unit is projected to regress back to average (16th) in that area in 2024,” Frelund wrote.

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With a ceiling of 9.2 wins and a floor of 5.0 wins, Frelund’s model is not exactly cheap for the Broncos in 2024, but it does I'd be happy to bet on more than Vegas' total number of wins this season, and with the majority of bettors also betting on the Broncos to win more than 5.5 times, that's not a total surprise.

However, the models fail to take into account one important factor: the overall variability of quarterback results and the extent to which Nix's emergence as a franchise quarterback might change the meaning of the formula.

Last year, Frelund’s article had Houston Texans Win total at 5.9 wins with a ceiling of 8.1 wins and a floor of 5.0. Of course, no one knew that CJ Stroud would emerge as a superstar quarterback after just one year in the league, especially for the defunct Houston franchise. The Texans won the AFC South with 10 wins, and Stroud is looking to put his team on the AFC map for the foreseeable future.

It's completely unfair to expect Nix to play in 2024 like Stroud, who had one of the best rookie quarterback seasons ever compared to Andrew Luck and Cam Newton. However, it would be unreasonable to completely disregard the chance that Nix could quickly emerge as a competent quarterback who could perfectly fit what Payton wants to do and improve the Broncos offense and team.

It's fun to look at the models and think about the probabilities of what could happen in the upcoming NFL season, but once the whistle blows and the games are actually underway, they're nothing more than hypotheses. Fortunately for the Broncos, the results of every football game are determined on the field and not in a computer simulation.


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