College Football Playoff Bubble Watch after Week 2

Predict who will College Football Playoff is so much harder than it was a year ago. It's even harder when you only have two weeks of games to fall back on.

But that doesn't stop us.

Each week, I'll let out my inner college basketball writer and bring you a bubble watch at the bottom of the list. Of course, this list can change dramatically from week to week as more data is added.

Here are the latest forecasts.

The last four

Missouri: Don't roll your eyes. The Tigers proved they can compete last year, and now it's about proving they can win against the SEC's elite. Missouri has outscored its opponents 89-0 through the first two weeks of the season, and aside from back-to-back games against Alabama and Oklahoma, the Tigers have a fairly tame SEC schedule.

Alabama: The Crimson Tide may have a problem with USF. The final result looks like a landslide victory, but Alabama was just a win against the Bulls early in the fourth quarter. They still have a very talented squad and a coach in Kalen DeBoer who knows how to win close games. That will be great when the level of competition increases.

Ole Miss: The Rebels have played two games and swept two inferior opponents off the field. Ole Miss has a roster capable of challenging for the SEC title, but at least they seem to be undoubtedly one of the top 10 teams in the country right now.

USC: The game started late Saturday night, so you may not have seen USC's 48-0 win over Utah State. The most important thing to note? The Trojans – yes, those Trojans – shut down an opponent. The defense seems to have improved a lot, and the offense, backed by Miller Moss and a number of elite players, makes me think: USC is much better than we expected.

The first four are out

Penn State: Week one made Penn State look like a world-class player with a new and improved offense and an advanced Drew Allar. When Penn State then faced Bowling Green at home, the game was in doubt in the fourth quarter. What a confusing pair of scores.

Clemson: One week after the defeat against Georgia, Clemson returned home and took out his aggression on Appalachian State. Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik threw five touchdown passes and led Clemson to 66 points. Maybe Georgia is just a dominant force that can't be stopped this year? Clemson's playoff hopes aren't dead.

State of Kansas: You could State of Kansas should be considered the Big 12 favorite, but it's a little harder to bring that view into focus after the Wildcats nearly lost to Tulane. But now the health of Utah quarterback Cam Rising is in question again — though it looks like he's back to health — and you can see the vision of what Kansas State should look like later in the season when things get rolling.

State of Oklahoma: Wait a minute. Another Big 12 team has entered the chat. State of Oklahoma is the model of consistency under Michael Gundy and the Cowboys overcame a big deficit against a dangerous Arkansas team to pull out the win. Oklahoma State gets a warm-up game next weekend in Tulsa before two games against Utah and Kansas State that should make the Big 12 competition much clearer before early October.

The next four are out

Oklahoma: I'm willing to listen to arguments that the Sooners are further along than people give them credit for. OklahomaHowever, Oklahoma needed a safety late in the fourth quarter against Houston to escape with a win. But don't be disappointed for too long, as Oklahoma hosts Tennessee in two weeks in a game that can change the way we look at the SEC race. Jackson-Arnold Comparisons Nico Iamaleava? Sign me up.

State of Iowa: They entered this year with the ability to make sure five or more Big 12 teams win the conference. State of Iowa is one of those teams. The Cyclones went to Kinnick Stadium and beat a Hawkeyes team that many thought would reach double-digit wins in the Big Ten over the weekend. Iowa State plays back-to-back games against Utah and Kansas State to close out the regular season, so there's still plenty of room to be in the College Football Playoff discussion in October and November. They just have to keep winning.

Louisville: Looking at the ACC, Miami seems to be the best team in the conference right now. Clemson would also like to have a say. But if you ask who is the biggest threat to beat one or both of these teams in the conference, Louisville is the likely answer. We'll find out more about the Cardinals on Saturday when they play a much-improved Georgia Tech.

Arizona: The Wildcats had a really ugly game on Saturday. Beating NAU 22-10 is not what you expect when preparing for a thrilling Friday night game against Kansas State. ArizonaHowever, they have one of the best quarterback-receiver duos in the country and, if things go well, could be a really tough out in the Big 12.

Group of 5 watches

Boise State: They may not have stayed up until 1 a.m. Sunday morning. They may not have Peacock. But losing to Oregon on a field goal as time expired doesn't knock the Broncos out of that position. Running back Ashton Jeanty is becoming one of the best weapons in the sport and Boise State has a real chance to be the top-ranked G5 team at the end of the year. They just need to respond to the loss to Oregon with wins.

UNLV: The Rebels started their season with a win over Big 12 foe Houston and then came back this weekend to score 72 points against Utah Tech. But if you really want to know if the Rebels will be in the College Football Playoff in November, be sure to tune in Saturday night for a road game at Kansas.

Memphis: The Tigers have started 2-0, but they have an away game against Florida State on Saturday. That suddenly seems like a really winnable game for Memphis. If Memphis Winning will be a nice highlight on the resume, even if it turns out that Florida State isn't that hard to beat this year. The schedule looks pretty good for the Tigers.

Freedom: The Flames needed a 21-point fourth quarter to beat New Mexico State. Freedom was actually close to losing, which many people didn't think was possible at the beginning of the year. The Flames will be a staple on this list, like it or not, as long as they remain undefeated. At the end of the year, I expect there to be a debate about what to do with an undefeated Liberty and another G5 team with a more impressive record.

The projected bracket

No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oregon
The winner meets No. 1 Ohio State at the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas
The winner meets No. 4 Utah at Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Oregon
Winner meets No. 2 Georgia in the sugar bowl

No. 11 USC at No. 6 Tennessee
The winner meets No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl