Fantasy Football Week 1 Starting Lineup Decisions: Caleb Williams has made his appearance

quarterback

Start: Caleb Williams, Bears

The Titans were a breeze for quarterbacks last year, ranking 30th in EPA per dropback allowed and 27th in adjusted yards per attempt allowed. Tennessee made an effort to improve its defense in the offseason by trading L'Jarius Sneed and drafting several defensive linemen after the first round. On the other hand, they lost sack leader Denico Autry and tackle leader Azeez Al-Shaair in free agency. The defense will improve, but even a leap forward will still portray them as a subpar unit.

For Caleb Williams, this is as good a situation as any first-round pick has ever been. DJ Moore and Keenan Allen both finished in the top 15 in yards per route run last year. Allen led the NFL in ESPN's open score and Moore finished second in catch score. They have an elite duo of veterans plus Rome Odunze, the ninth pick in the draft. In addition to this elite selection of weapons, Pro Football Focus ranks the Bears offensive line 11th in the league at the start of the season. Williams will surprise doubters about the rookie quarterback, starting with a destruction of the Titans.

Start: Geno Smith, Seahawks

Speaking of great situations, Geno Smith finds himself in one with Seattle's signing of Ryan Grubb. Grubb coordinated the Washington Huskies' offense and built an explosive, pass-heavy attack.

Grubb, also by Hayden Winks, showed off his play-design prowess in the preseason by utilizing pre-snap motion at the second-highest percentage. On Smith's only drive of the preseason, Grubb called five passes, all from 11 people, two of which resulted in 20-yard gains. Run to where the puck is going and jump on the Seattle bandwagon.

Sitting: Dak Prescott, Cowboys

The Browns were the true nightmare opponent for quarterbacks last year, generating -.19 EPA per play when an opposing passer dropped back, the best in the NFL and the most for a defense since 2019. Cleveland's opponents ran the fewest plays and attempted the fifth-fewest passes in 2023. I'd take a risk in Week 1 and take players like Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels over Dak.

Sitting: Aaron Rodgers, Jets

Aaron Rodgers played a handful of snaps in 2023 and was far from the peak of his powers in 2022. His 6.8 yards per attempt was a seven-year low. He ranked 15th in completion percentage above expected and 21st in EPA per play. For his triumphant return from the torn Achilles he suffered last year, Rodgers gets a brutal matchup with the 49ers. San Francisco's defense ranked sixth in EPA per dropback and seventh in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks last season.

Run back

Start: Zack Moss, Bengals

The hype surrounding Chase Brown peaked in late summer, and rightly so. He's an explosive young running back in a potentially elite offense. With that in mind, Week 1 is a great time for backfield dragger Zack Moss. According to NFL's Next Gen Stats, the former Colt posted a strong 2023 success rate—a measure of how often you get a positive run result—of 41.8 percent. He was also over 40 percent in 2022. His consistency and size advantage over Brown should give him the first chance to get work at the goal line. As an 8.5-point favorite at home against New England, he should have plenty of that.

Start: David Montgomery, Lions

Montgomery is another 1A running back in a phenomenal position. The Lions are a 3.5-point favorite at home and have the highest implied team point total on the slate. Vegas projects the Lions to score in spades, and Montgomery is the guy they're using at the goal line. Montgomery outscored Jahmyr Gibbs 17-8 inside the five last year before the playoffs. In the postseason, Montgomery had eight runs inside the five. Gibbs was never given that much to see. Detroit's battering ram of a running back is a strong start in games like his Week 1 matchup against LA.

Sitting: James Conner, Cardinals

The Cardinals are down 6.5 points on the road in Buffalo. They have an uninspiring team point total of 20.75, and James Conner doesn't have a strong pass-receiving role to fall back on if he doesn't make it to the end zone. Conner finished the 2023 season ranked 33rd in route share and 40th in target share. Conner was so good between the tackles last year that I'll even back him as a slight underdog, but a near-touchdown deficit knocks him out.

Sitting: Zamir White, Raiders

Head coach Antonio Pierce definitely wants to do that with Zamir White, but he probably won't get the opportunity in Week 1. The Raiders are three-point underdogs on the road, and Pierce wasn't stubborn about running the football last year. His team had an above-average passing rate when trailing, and Vegas gave up running altogether when they were down by a touchdown. They passed on 73 percent of their plays when playing with a seven-point deficit, which would have led the NFL through an entire season. White has caught more than three passes in a game … since high school.

Wide receiver

Start: Keenan Allen, Bears

As we cheer on Caleb Williams in his debut, you can be sure we have his No. 2 receiver in the lineup. In addition to the great stats mentioned above that suggest Allen is still a star, he ranks fourth in the NFL in receiving yards per game (95.6) and first in receptions per game (8.3). Forget the “Big Keenan” non-story from the summer and start with the star wideout.

Keenan Allen (heel) is listed as questionable but will likely play despite the issue. Keep an eye on his status through the Rotoworld News Feed.

Start: Keon Coleman, Bills

Coleman is a risky bet in Week 1, but a risk worth taking. In his two preseason appearances, he played every snap with the starters while players Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel rotated in and out of the lineup. The Bills have the highest implied team total for the week (27.25) and get an Arizona defense that ranked 31st in EPA per dropback allowed in 2023. Coleman would be a good FLEX player as a part-time player and has the advantage of getting a premium snap share in his first game.

Sitting: Tyler Lockett, Seahawks

Lockett, who just idolized Ryan Grubb and the new Seattle offense, is the one player who might struggle to capitalize on the changes. Lockett is nearly 32 years old, coming off his worst season since 2017 in terms of yards per route run, and is already injured. Plus, he has last year's first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba breathing down his neck. If JSN takes a step forward, Lockett continues his regression, or the injury limits his playing time, Week 1 could be a rude awakening for Lockett's fantasy backers.

Sitting: Jerry Jeudy, Browns

The Browns-Cowboys matchup is just disgusting. Both defenses ranked in the top 5 in EPA allowed per game in 2023 and Vegas did it with a total of 41 points. That number dropped precipitously after starting at 44.5 and now has the second-lowest point projection of the week. Deshaun Watson is still waiting for his first 300-yard game with the Browns and Kevin Stefanski has taken an absurdly run-heavy approach to hide Watson over the past two seasons. Watson, and by extension Jeudy, are in the “wait and see” category for Week 1.

Close opponent

Start: Taysom Hill, Saints

Taysom Hill's status as a tight end has not been confirmed in all 50 states, so be sure to call your local representative if he is not listed as such on your fantasy platform of choice. For those playing on Democratic sites: Hill is a must and a viable starting option if you don't end up with an elite tight end. The Saints put Kendre Miller on the injured list and Jamaal Williams finished last in the NFL in rush yards above expectations last year. Hill, meanwhile, played 9 of 20 snaps out of the backfield this preseason and scored a short touchdown. He has scored at least five touchdowns in each of the last five seasons and scored nine touchdowns in two seasons before his passing touchdowns were counted. Now he has a chance for more work as a backup running back.

He's also the only player his head coach, Dennis Allen, has said something good about this summer. Hill's performance will fluctuate, but he has the best chance of matching the results of an elite tight end in a week.

Start: Colby Parkinson, Rams

If you're really desperate for a tight end, how did you get here already? Regardless, Colby Parkinson is the deepest-cut TE2 you can find on the waiver list. Tyler Higbee ran the 13th-most routes among tight ends last year, despite missing two games. Higbee suffered a torn ACL in the playoffs and will miss a large portion of the 2023 season. Parkinson signed a three-year, $22.5 million contract in the offseason and was rested with the other starters in the preseason. He's the overwhelming favorite to fill the “Higbee role.” Parkinson is just a bet on the routes, but that could be enough to come home in a game with a total score of 51, easily the highest of the week.

Sitting: Cole Kmet, Bears

The two tight end sits will be extremely short and based on the same logic. Cole Kmet ran a route on half of Caleb Williams' dropbacks during the preseason. Gerald Everett played 20 snaps with the starters, compared to 14 for Kmet.

Kmet even played further than the other starters. I'm still not sure if Everett will play ahead of Kmet, but I don't want to find out by choosing my starting lineup.

Seat: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers

In the Steelers' first preseason game, Pat Freiermuth posted a disappointing 71 percent snap share. His snap share dropped to 52 percent the next week and then dropped to 40 percent by the end of the preseason. New OC Arthur Smith had him play with former third-round pick Darnell Washington and Atlanta transfer MyCole Pruitt. This is a clear no-go until further notice.