Do you want to fight crime? Build communities where people can thrive

Crime dominated local news headlines in August. How worried should people be and what can they do to fight back?

As a criminologist, I'm often asked about changes in crime rates or what a series of crimes means for our community. Every shooting is a tragedy, and it can be especially scary when there are multiple shootings in a short period of time, as has happened recently. But I try to look at the data to understand what's going on.

Shootings and other cases of serious violence are so rare that they can happen frequently by chance. I always want to know if these crimes are connected – is something going on or is it a coincidence?

Even if they're not directly related, other factors—including heat!—can cause short-term increases in crime rates. Most importantly, though, I always want to see long-term trends in crime rates to see if recent events are part of a statistical fluctuation (anomalies) or part of a trend.

The Honolulu Police Department provides us with a helpful dashboard of violent crime statistics. When I see crime in the headlines, I look at that dashboard to see how we compare to last year. This tells me whether a series of headline-grabbing incidents indicates a trend or just a temporary spike.

If I see that our crime rate at the end of every single month is consistently and significantly higher than the previous year, that would be a sign to me that we should start to worry.

In fact, the number of murders this August was comparable to that of last August: there were five murders this August and four last August. This slight increase is actually within the normal statistical range. For example, there were no murders in July this year, but there were two last July.

As horrific as any crime is, we must look at the larger pattern and look beyond the headlines to determine if there is statistical reason to panic.

So far, our murder rate this year is statistically indistinguishable from that of the previous year: at the end of August last year, we had 16 murders for the year; at the end of August this year, there were 19. Again, this is a slight increase, which is within the expected fluctuations.

Statistics aside, real people are scared. Real people are hurt and dying. Real people are grieving for their family members or neighbors and for the peace in their community.

Strategies and prevention

So what can we do about it? We need to think about both short-term and long-term strategies to reduce crime.

The police are an effective tool for crime prevention, but they cannot do everything. They can mainly respond to crimes when they happen or after they have happened. Crime prevention must be the responsibility of everyone, not just the police.

How do you do that? By supporting each other and making sure everything is OK.

One of the gun violence cases in August was due to domestic violence. To prevent domestic violence, you can check in with family, friends and neighbors. Ask them how they are doing.

Many people are stressed right now – for many reasons. And then there's the summer heat. Such conditions can lead to fights and other acts of violence. And if someone has access to a weapon, fights can turn deadly very quickly.

Watch for patterns of erratic or escalating behavior. You know what your family, friends and neighbors are usually like, which means you can also tell when something is wrong when something isn't right.

This doesn't necessarily mean they will commit a crime or become a victim of a crime, but it may be a sign that they might need extra support or a little tutoring.

If you notice someone losing control, it may be time to call for backup. Get family and friends involved, talk to each other and think about how you can help the person. If you consider the situation to be sufficiently serious, call the police.

This advice might make some people hesitant because West Oahu, which is the focus of many crime-related news stories, is home to many Native Hawaiians and other Pacific Islanders who face issues like excessive police presence and over-incarceration. I'm guessing a lot of people are concerned that sending out extra police or sending out a tip-off could have a negative impact on members of that community.

At the same time, victims of crime often come from the same social, cultural, and ethnic groups as the perpetrators, in part because most victims know their perpetrators. And here in Hawaii, Native Hawaiians are overrepresented in crime statistics. If we want to protect our Native Hawaiians, we must protect them from crime.

We also need to focus on long-term crime prevention. Situational or short-term crime prevention strategies such as informing the police are useful, especially to bring the situation under control.

But the most successful solution is to focus on the underlying factors that lead to crime in the first place: providing adequate housing, reducing unemployment, ensuring quality education and after-school programs, providing prenatal and childhood nutrition, and daycare and preschool education, among other evidence-based strategies identified in a recent report from the National Institute of Justice.

Essentially, we need to do things that help build a strong community and promote the development of resilient, successful people.