Donald Trump regains narrow lead in Arizona poll average

According to FiveThirtyEight's poll average, Donald Trump has taken the lead in Arizona for the first time in nearly a month.

The poll tracker shows that Trump is currently 0.4 percentage points ahead of his rival Kamala Harris in the swing state, at 45.7 percent versus 45.3 percent for Harris. According to the poll tracker, this is the first time Trump has led in the state since August 9.

This came after the five most recent polls in the state showed either a tie between the two or Trump ahead. A CNN poll conducted between August 23 and 29 showed Trump leading by five percentage points among 682 likely voters. The margin of error was 4.9 percentage points.

Meanwhile, polls from Redfield and Wilton Strategies and Emerson College between August 25 and 28 showed Trump leading by one percentage point and four percentage points, respectively. His one percentage point lead was within the margin of error, while his four percentage point lead was outside. Polls from Morning Consult and InsiderAdvantage showed the two candidates tied.

Before Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee, polls consistently showed Trump ahead of Biden in Arizona, but now they show Harris leading by as much as 5 percentage points.

But recent polls suggest Harris may have lost her lead in Arizona. Pollster Nate Silver's model shows Harris is only likely to win in two swing states – Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump is currently ahead by one point in Arizona, while Republicans have gained 2.4 points in the past week. According to Silver's model, Harris was previously ahead in Arizona.

Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics' poll tracker also shows Trump ahead by 1 point in the state. On the day Biden withdrew from the race, Trump's lead was 5.8 points, according to RealClearPolitics, and Nate Silver's model showed Trump ahead by 7 points in the state on the day Biden withdrew.

Despite Harris' influence on the polls, FiveThirtyEight's forecast still predicts Trump will win the state by 0.6 points.

Biden won Arizona in 2020 after Trump won the state in 2016.

Newsweek has emailed Harris and Trump's campaign teams for comment.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris is 3.1 points ahead of Trump nationally.

However, pollster Victor Allis wrote in a post on the website ActiVote that Harris' lead over Donald Trump in the polls is “steadily shrinking.”

“Harris's poll numbers improved steadily for about three to four weeks after Biden's exit, followed by a two-week period in which she remained at about a five-point lead. Over the last five days, that five-point lead has steadily shrunk to just under two percent,” he wrote.

This came amid an expected rise in poll numbers for Harris of at least two points after the DNC. But according to Silver, her lead nationally has only grown by 1.2 points.

Silver's forecast model on Friday showed Trump ahead of Harris in the Electoral College for the first time since early August. His model gave Trump a 55 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, 11 percentage points higher than Harris' 44 percent.

Six bookmakers now see Trump ahead of Harris, including Sky Bet, Paddy Power, William Hill, 888sport, Betfair and Unibet. However, the two presidential candidates are neck and neck with Bet365 and Ladbrokes.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris is still in the lead in five of the seven swing states, and she is predicted to win in four of them.

Follow Newsweek's live blog for election updates.