Series Preview: Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres

After a series win over the Cardinals to cap off an otherwise mediocre road trip, the Mariners return home for a huge home game, starting with another NL opponent, also known as “Our Natural Rivals,” the San Diego Padres.

The Mariners and Padres have more in common than just Spring Training practice: Every organization knows the agony that comes with chasing a dominant, perennial division leader like the Astros and Dodgers, and Mariners fans in particular can relate to the excitement and anger that comes with having Shohei Ohtani as a division rival. This season, the Padres must not only chase the Dodgers, who currently have the best winning percentage in baseball with the Phillies, but they must also fend off the Diamondbacks, who are hot on their heels in the fight for a Wild Card spot.

In hindsight, the Padres seem really smart to move up a deadline that was short on hitters and sign Luis Arraez back in May (not to mention their signing of Dylan Cease long before pitcher prices skyrocketed at the same time). The contact-oriented OBP machine hasn't recaptured the heights of his 2023 season, in which he competed for the batting title, but he remains one of the most stubborn outs in MLB. The Mariners will also face Fernando Tatís Jr. in this series after his annual IL stint coincided with the last Mariners-Padres series in San Diego. They will likely be missing Ha-Seong Kim in this series, who is currently on the IL with shoulder inflammation, meaning Tacoma Rainiers legend Mason McCoy will step in at shortstop. Jackson Merrill continues to make Kate look very smart when she selected him as the preseason NL ROY, as he continues to impress on both sides of the ball (Paul Skenes, anyone?) despite him, too, dealing with a bad knee. The Mariners were able to keep the resurgent Jurickson Profar relatively quiet in their last two games against the Padres by invoking the old AL West magic, but the 31-year-old veteran remains the Padres' most productive hitter and shows he has access to some magic tricks of his own.

Probable pitchers

Updated Stuff+ explainer video

Yu Darvish made 11 solid starts for the Padres before a groin strain and mild elbow inflammation derailed his season. In the middle of his rehab, he was placed on the restricted list for personal reasons. After being away from the team for three months, he finally returned to the major leagues last week, pitching 2.2 innings in his first start since late May. He threw 63 pitches in that start and will likely have a limited number of pitches again in this start against the Mariners. As for his pitches, Darvish still has the most extensive repertoire in baseball, with Baseball Savant breaking his pitches down into eight different categories—but if you get really specific, he uses more like 10 or 11 different grips on his pitches, and some of their characteristics blend together, which is why Savant only “sees” eight. He still throws with good velocity, even though he turned 38 a few weeks ago.

From an earlier series preview:

Michael King was one of the headline pitchers who came to the Padres in the big Juan Soto trade in December. He moved from working in the high-pressure bullpen to the starting lineup last summer and delivered nine phenomenal starts for the Yankees on the home stretch. He has continued to start for San Diego and has been a solid pitcher for them this year. Adding a sweeper to his arsenal a few years ago helped him push his strikeout rates well above league average, and an improved changeup has given him the deep repertoire to excel in extended outings.

King has been one of the Padres' best pitchers since May after a fairly slow start to the season. His ERA and FIP are around 2.50 over the last five months. In his last outing against the Mariners, he held the Mariners to just two runs in six innings and recorded nine strikeouts.

The big picture:

I don't know, do we really have to do this? Get yourself a little treat or walk around the block or something.