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Why there won't be a World Series rematch between the Diamondbacks and the Rangers

The last time the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers played each other in late May was the first meeting in 2024 since the 2023 World Series. Texas had a 25-29 record and Arizona was 25-28 at the start of the two-game series.

Since then — and ahead of the teams' two-game series in Phoenix that begins Tuesday — the D-backs have gotten back into competitive shape, posting a 55-36 record that has improved to 80-64. The Rangers have not.

They went 45-45 and are now 70-74 overall, 6.5 games out of a Wild Card playoff spot with 18 games remaining, so a World Series rematch is out of the question.

A drop in performance for Texas was not to be expected, with their preseason win total being over 80. If one predicted that one of the two biggest surprise teams of last year would miss the postseason, it was the D-backs.

So what happened to the Rangers?

First of all, there have been significant individual setbacks in their offense.

OPS+ is a solid indicator of how close or far players are from league average, for better or for worse. With 100 as the average, only four current Texas starters (90+ games played) are above it. Last year, 10 of the 12 Rangers with at least 90 games played were above league average.

Shortstop Corey Seager was the only constant this year, but even then his OPS dropped from 1.013 to .864, a drop of 149 points.

Their other two star players have also suffered major setbacks. Right fielder Adolis Garcia (166 points at .670) and second baseman Marcus Semien (131 points at .695) are below-average hitters this year.

Put more simply, the 2023 Rangers were third in catchers and second basemen OPS, first in shortstops OPS and fifth in right fielders OPS, according to Baseball-Reference. Only Seager has stayed within reach of third place this year.

At the catcher position, Texas has dropped to 26th place with Jonah Heim (158 points at .597) and without Mitch Garver (signed with Seattle), which almost matches the drop in right field with Garcia to 28th place. Second base has slipped to a respectable 11th place with Semien.

Texas' lineup was supposed to be really boosted by 2023 Starlet of the Year Evan Carter and top talent Wyatt Langford, but Carter has only played in 45 games due to injury and Langford has been doing quite well with an OPS+ of 101 and an OPS of .703.

There were significant injuries in both departments, and not just to Carter. Third baseman Josh Jung was great in the World Series but only played four games before being out for four months. He didn't return until late July.

The pitchers were already behind at the start of the season, with Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle and Max Scherzer facing long delays. DeGrom is coming back from Tommy John surgery and should pitch this season, Mahle didn't pitch until August 6, and Scherzer's season debut was June 23.

Left-hander Cody Bradford missed nearly three months after starting just three times. Those four have combined for just 20 starts.

Texas still has Nathan Eovaldi (3.55 ERA, 1.06 WHIP), Andrew Heaney (3.84 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) and Jon Gray (4.47 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) putting up decent numbers. That doesn't include the trade-deadline departure of Michael Lorenzen, who had a 3.81 ERA in 18 starts before going to Kansas City.

All of that adds up to a baseball team that is consistently middle of the pack this year, just below average in most basic statistical categories. There hasn't been some random major development to replace that, like a D-backs batting lineup that was expected to be serviceable but is instead one of the best in MLB.

Texas should be back in the mix next year if the Rangers choose to do so. Their key players don't have any major contract extensions coming up and Semien is the only one in his early 30s.

But Eovaldi, Heaney and Scherzer's contracts in the rotation expire in 2025. DeGrom still has three expensive guaranteed years left, and Seager and Semien have also been spent heavily in the long term, so the Rangers will certainly get through at least the first half of next year before some difficult decisions could arise.

Regardless, they serve as a lesson in the importance of seizing the opportunity that presents itself. Arizona's opportunity is open, Texas's is not.

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