Trump vs. Harris: Betting markets show who is likely to win the US presidential debate

The anticipation for the first presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday evening is huge, and the betting markets are already identifying Harris as the likely winner of the showdown.
According to the Fox NewsDealers on Polymarketa popular prediction platform, gave Harris a 75% chance of dominating the debate, compared to Trump's 25%. Similarly, BetUS favored Harris with a 68.75% chance of success, which Trump with a rate of 39.22% behind.
Although Harris will have the upper hand in the debate, there is a twist – Trump is still considered the favorite to win the election. According to BetUS, Trump has an implied probability of 54.55% to win the presidential election, compared to Harris' 52.38%. Polymarket agrees with this assessment, giving Trump a 52 percent chance of winning the election, while Harris has a 45 percent chance.
These predictions lead to a fascinating paradox: The vice president is expected to win the debate, but he faces a tough fight in the overall election campaign. Really clear policyThe average of six betting markets shows Trump ahead of Harris with a 51.7 percent chance of winning the presidency, while she has just 46.7 percent. However, PredictIt offers a slightly different assessment, giving Harris a 53 percent chance of winning the election and Trump a 52 percent.
Influence of the debate versus electoral reality
Harry Crane of Rutgers University, a prediction market expert, explained the apparent discrepancy. He pointed out that platforms like Polymarket often rely on polling data from Ipsos/538, which tends to be liberal and favors Harris in debates. But Crane said debates cannot drastically affect the outcome of the election unless they are particularly one-sided.
“There are two questions here,” Crane said. “One is, how important are the debates? The other is, does the poll about who won the debate actually reflect who won the debate?”
While Tuesday night's debate may set the tone for the weeks ahead, the broader battle for the presidency remains a far more unpredictable affair.