close
close

Trump's lawyers pursued an unrealistically daring strategy. It worked.

“I'm disappointed in my legal talent, I'll tell you that frankly,” former President Donald Trump told reporters in the lobby of Trump Tower on Friday afternoon. A phalanx of those same lawyers stood awkwardly behind him as he reminded the assembled journalists of his numerous legal problems. But that was before the New York judge presiding over the criminal trial that resulted in 34 convictions for Trump announced that sentencing would not occur until November 26.

In light of Judge Juan Merchan's decision, it is hard to deny that Trump's lawyers have accomplished a tremendous feat. The strategy they have pursued over the past year, which has proven successful in four cases across the country, has worked. Trump will not face criminal liability before Election Day.

Things have worked out in Trump's favor in ways that were hard to imagine when the charges started pouring in. Despite being convicted in May on 34 counts of falsifying business records, this year has been better than expected for him. In December, it looked like Trump would spend this year in courtrooms rather than on the campaign trail. But while the 78-year-old candidate is no longer rushing from rally to rally like he used to, it's not because he's bogged down in one criminal case after another.

Things turned out in Trump's favor in ways that were hard to imagine when the indictment arrived.

Sometimes it feels like this is happening despite, not because of, Trump's instructions to his lawyers. Those who stuck with him followed his lead, making the most maximalist, overtly political arguments possible, whether they had a chance of success or not. The sheer volume of paperwork he had his lawyers file in motion after motion has cost millions of dollars in legal fees, paid almost entirely by donors to his campaign. Many of these legal efforts came to nothing, but just enough spaghetti stuck to the wall.

One of Trump's numerous co-defendants first brought to light a romantic relationship that Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis had with a special prosecutor, and Trump's lawyers took up the matter. Willis had planned to begin Trump's trial in August, about a year after he was charged with trying to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia. But that relationship was the opportunity Trump's allies used to stall the proceedings. The appeals court that will decide whether Willis should pursue the case won't hear oral arguments until December.

The idea that there was a previously secret absolute immunity from prosecution seemed laughable when Trump's lawyers first tried to delay his election interference case. U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan summarily dismissed the case in December, but Trump took it all the way to the Supreme Court, which took its time. After hearing oral arguments in April, the court issued its ruling on July 1, the last day of that year's term, that presidents enjoy absolute immunity for “core constitutional duties” and presumptive immunity for “official acts.” Chutkan has finally put the case back, but she released a schedule on Thursday that made clear that pretrial briefings on the new case will extend beyond the election.

And in Florida, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon has been almost constantly putting the brakes on Trump's federal secrets case, once considered the clearest case against him. As Cannon granted even the most absurd requests from Trump's team, her schedule became overcrowded and the case kept getting pushed back. Then in July, she dismissed the case on the completely unexpected grounds that Attorney General Merrick Garland had wrongfully appointed special counsel Jack Smith to his position. The Justice Department has appealed that decision, but there isn't likely to be a resolution soon.

Only one thing could potentially end Trump's winning streak: his defeat on Election Day.

For those still clinging to hope that Trump could be convicted before Election Day, Judge Merchan put the final nail in the coffin on Friday when he agreed to a request from Trump's lawyers to delay the sentencing, which had been scheduled for Sept. 18. He is scheduled to rule on Sept. 20 on whether the Supreme Court immunity case should affect the jury's decision to convict, and the delay will allow time to file any appeals before Trump's sentence is announced. Merchan wrote in his decision that the delay was important to “avoid any appearance — however unjustified — that the proceedings have been influenced or are attempting to be influenced by the upcoming presidential election in which the defendant is a candidate.”

The decision to stay sentencing, however, has electoral implications. There is only one thing that could end Trump's winning streak: his defeat on Election Day. Trump's legal strategy is to return to the White House next year. From the Oval Office, he could order his attorney general to drop the federal charges against him or pardon himself. He would also have presidential patronage, which would protect him from further legal action from Georgia or New York. Four years of justice delaying depends on whether he defeats Vice President Kamala Harris, and Merchan's decision not to issue a verdict before the election can hardly be seen as anything other than a boon for him.

Importantly, however, even if Trump loses to Harris, it is no guarantee that he will not be able to continue with the same game plan. Given what we have seen, there is still a likelihood that if he is convicted in further trials, he will appeal all the way to the Supreme Court. In the end, there may not be another lifeline waiting for him – but it would be enough to keep him afloat for as long as possible.