College Football Week 3 Picks: Arizona State vs. Texas State

There was no Thursday night college football game in Week 2, but we do have an exciting game in Week 3. Arizona State was one of the early surprises of the season, but they'll be put to a tough test on the road in San Marcos against Texas State. The fast-rising Bobcats under GJ Kinne have a rare chance to be in the national spotlight with a standalone ESPN game to start the new week.

This should be a good game, with a competitive lineup and two highly motivated teams.

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Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Texas State joined the FBS in 2012 and just made its first bowl game appearance last season. In fact, it was their first winning season and first season with more than four wins. Kinne will likely move up to a bigger position after this season, so every win is an award for him and also for the program.

Arizona State has fallen on some pretty rough patches. Second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham had a 3-9 season last year, meaning the Sun Devils have back-to-back three-win seasons. Recruiting violations under former head coach Herm Edwards cost the program some wins, and the 10-win seasons under Todd Graham in 2013 and 2014 seem like a lifetime ago.

That sets the stage for the bigger picture of this game, but this particular matchup is very exciting. Arizona State crushed Wyoming in its opening game and Cam Skattebo rushed for 262 yards in a win over Mississippi State in Week 2. After 33 carries, the quick turnaround could be difficult for the team's leading runner and best playmaker.

QB Sam Leavitt was strong against Wyoming, completing 14 of 22 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns with some big plays. He was less effective against Mississippi State, completing 10 of 20 passes for 69 yards. He didn't have to do much, but he wasn't really successful at what he was asked to do. Will the Sun Devils have the same success in the running game against Texas State, or will Leavitt's passing game be in the crosshairs?

The Bobcats' defense definitely improved last season compared to before Kinne. But this is still a club that prioritizes offense. Jordan McCloud, who transferred from James Madison, completed 39 of 57 passes for 547 yards with a 5/2 TD/INT ratio. Against Lamar and UTSA, he completed 68% of his passes. Against ASU, that's definitely a notch higher, so we'll see how he fares in this game.

Texas State has 6.47 yards per play so far after averaging 6.21 yards per play last season. Arizona State was 122nd in the nation last year with 4.75 yards per play, but early results have been good so far with over six yards per play. Dillingham has historically been an offensive player and perhaps we are seeing the effects of a recruiting and portal cycle here.

My Week 3 college football power ratings show Arizona State -4.5, but I'm not entirely sold on that line. Arizona State is a team I've upgraded pretty aggressively so far, and some recency effect may be factoring into the number. Before last week, I would have had Arizona State -1.5, but when you factor in the short week and first road game, I think some qualitative adjustments need to be made.

This is one of the biggest games in recent Texas State history with a Power Four team at home that has all the spotlight on them and I think they will put up a great showing.

Selection: Texas State +1.5