NFL “Thursday Night Football” tips and odds

On Thursday night, the Buffalo Bills travel south to face the Miami Dolphins in a crucial game of the AFC East season.

Both teams are 1-0 after comeback wins in Week 1 and will be looking to secure top spot in the division with a win in Week 2.

Let's look at the pairings and find out where the betting value lies.

When the Bills have the ball

We are getting more and more insight into how offensive coordinator Joe Brady approaches his offense in Buffalo.

In Week 1, the Bills had a neutral pass percentage of 47%, which would have ranked 30th in the NFL last year. Josh Allen had four pass attempts at halftime.

It's clear that Brady wants to build a run behind a strong offensive line and I don't think that will change on Thursday night against the Dolphins.

Miami's run defense suffered an offseason setback with the loss of Christian Wilkins.

According to Sharp Football, the Dolphins allowed opposing running backs 3.7 yards per carry last year when Wilkins was on the field and 4.3 yards when he was off the field.

Their run defense held up well in Week 1, but we'll see if that continues.

The Bills hope to continue using rookie Keon Coleman on Thursday after he led the team with an 86.7% route run rate and 31.3% first read rate, according to Fantasy Points Data.

However, he could attract the attention of elite corner Jalen Ramsey, which limits his chances.

When the Dolphins have the ball

After some notable off-the-field distractions, it took a while for Miami's offense to get going in Week 1.

The Dolphins ranked 20th in offensive EPA/game in the first half and 14th in the second half.

However, there are some serious concerns about the new offensive line. Miami managed just 2.99 adjusted line yards (29th) and ran for 59 yards on 21 runs by the running back (2.8 average).

Miami will be without Raheem Mostert and possibly De'Von Achane on Thursday night.

Achane, who had seven catches for 76 yards last week and ranked third on the team with a 46.3% route run rate, would be a huge loss as a receiver.

The Dolphins lost Robert Hunt and Connor Williams to free agents and Isaiah Wynn is on the PUP list, giving the team an entirely new offensive line on the interior.

That could cause problems against the Bills' strong front, which ranked second in run-stop win percentage in Week 1.

Additionally, DE Greg Rousseau is coming off a three-sack game against Arizona.

Tua Tagovailoa ranked just 20th in pass completion percentage in Week 1, and while he can still step up his offense, I'm not sure he can do that against the Bills, who have played him excellently over the years.

Buffalo has limited Tagovailoa to a 61.8% success rate and six touchdowns with seven interceptions in the last six meetings.

Betting on the NFL?

The verdict

I grabbed the under this week when the price was at 51, but I still don't mind getting it at 49, even at 48.5 where the price has fallen at some sportsbooks.

The unders are 59% in primetime over the past four seasons, and according to Action Network's Brandon Anderson, the odds are 15-4-1 (79%) for the under on Thursday Night Football games in September and October with total scores of 49.5 or higher.

Also pay attention to the weather forecast. Thunderstorms with strong winds are expected in the afternoon, which may last into the evening.

Recommendation: Under 49 points (-110, BetMGM).