Pac-12 expansion: Key questions (and answers) after the conference begins another round of realignment

The Pac-12 recovered from its near-extinction fate on Thursday and welcomed four new schools: Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Colorado State. Starting in the 2026 season, they will be member institutions alongside Oregon State and Washington State.

The move locks up four of the top franchises in the Mountain West as the league tries to re-establish itself as a national force. But a number of questions remain as college football's next major realignment unfolds. Like the last one, when the dust settles, it could have major implications from the FBS to Division III.

Here are the top questions that arose after the Pac-12 added four schools from the Mountain West on Thursday.

Why these four schools?

The factors driving the Pac-12's realignment mirror many of the discussions that have taken place in the past. The league's primary focus is revenue, so finding the biggest and most valuable brands was a priority. By nearly all financial metrics, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State and Fresno State filled the top five spots. The final decisions ultimately fell on Oregon State and Washington State.

“I was happy with the configuration and the metrics,” said Adela de la Torre, president of San Diego State University. “The metrics reflected the decision-making process and were very objective in that regard. In my opinion, the best four were selected.”

Perhaps the most surprising Mountain West franchise left out was UNLV. The Rebels have invested heavily in football and now play at the Raiders' Allegiant Stadium. UNLV coach Barry Odom has helped lead the program to an appearance in the Mountain West Championship Game in 2023, and the Rebels just pulled off a 27-7 win over Houston. But splitting the UNLV and Nevada programs could be politically complicated, according to Yahoo Sports.

Will the “new” Pac-12 have Power Five status?

While the new conference will keep the Pac-12 name, it will not have all of the league's benefits. In April, the conference lost its autonomy status, which is a legal sign of being a power conference. Additionally, the College Football Playoff removed an automatic bid slot for a fifth power conference champion and instead created a total of five slots, one of which will go to a Group of Five team. There is no indication that the model will change, although it will be up for discussion before a new CFP contract is signed in 2026.

There is no formal definition of the Power Five, however; conferences are more of a spectrum. The Big Ten and SEC generate nearly $70 million per school per year in television money alone. The ACC and Big 12 bring in $30 million. The AAC leads the way among non-Power Five schools at just under $10 million. The Mountain West was at about $3.5 million per school. Getting closer to the ACC and Big 12 is possible and would at least help make a case.

When will the teams move? How will the move be financed?

The four Mountain West schools will continue to participate in the league through the 2025 season. They will officially join the Pac-12 Conference on July 1, 2026.

According to Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports, buying a year of football for four schools will cost about $113 million. The Pac-12 has a $250 million “war chest” that includes NCAA tournament units and existing contracts. Some of that money could be used to pay the fines and exit fees.

Which other schools could be targeted?

Given the amount it will cost the four schools to drop out of the league, the Pac-12 will have big goals to create an upgraded conference. Top brands from the American Athletic Conference could be targets, including Memphis, Tulane or UTSA. After the conference landed six schools from the West Coast, geography likely won't be a strong factor as it tries to maximize its financial value. But convincing schools that the Pac-12 provides greater value than the AAC will be a challenge. If not, the Pac-12 could return to the Mountain West or apply to other top programs in the Group of Five.

Why does the Pac-12 have to reach eight schools?

According to NCAA bylaws, a conference must have at least eight members to be recognized as an official league. However, a conference has a two-year buffer period before the rule takes effect, which is why Oregon State and Washington State can maintain the Pac-12's legal status even without enough teams. With the four new additions, the Pac-12 will have six schools by the time the two-year buffer period expires, meaning two more teams must join the league by 2026.

In 2021, Conference USA found itself in a similar situation. Nine of the league's 14 teams left for either the Sun Belt or American, leaving the conference with just five teams. C-USA opted to add Liberty and New Mexico State — which competed as independent FBS teams — in addition to Jacksonville State and Sam Houston from the FCS.

What are the remaining Mountain West schools doing?

The Pac-12's move was only made official Thursday morning, meaning no real clarity for the Mountain West. The conference still has eight members, although Hawaii joins the conference as a football-only member. The potentially massive severance payment from the departing schools will give the conference a nest egg to look around.

One possible location is Conference USA, which includes a handful of western schools in New Mexico and Texas. However, it's unclear whether New Mexico State or UTEP would add value to the conference. It could also do what C-USA did last time and upgrade FCS schools. There are elite FCS football programs in Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota, but they have historically shied away from turning to FBS. Idaho is one of the few programs to ever voluntarily move from FBS to FCS, where it is currently enjoying a successful run.

The Mountain West does not exist in a bubble. Other conferences could also recruit their members, particularly UNLV or Air Force, the next two most valuable programs. The conference will likely have to play offense and defense simultaneously.