UFC 306 odds, predictions: Betting the underdog in Sean O’Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili matchup

The UFC has promised a spectacle for its UFC 306 card Saturday night — which will take place at the Sphere — as a celebration of Mexican Independence Day. While the card is only scheduled with 10 fights, we have a couple of amazing title bouts at the top, and some other fun action scattered throughout the rest of the slate. I’m going to dive into both of those matchups below, as well as another one of my favorite prelim contests.

As always, you can find full breakdowns for every fight on every slate at Establishtherun.com, or follow me on X (@BrettAppley) for more information.

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili

This is one of my favorite title fights in recent memory. I love the state of the bantamweight division and I think both Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili have a real test in front of them on Saturday.

O’Malley is the current champion and recently defended his title in a one-way beatdown over Marlon Vera, but I’d be surprised to see this bout play out in a similar manner.

I’ve always considered O’Malley a skilled fighter, and he primarily excels as a range striker who’s able to use his range management, volume and cardio to outwork opponents. These skills show up in his metrics, where O’Malley is averaging 7.63 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 3.52 per minute with a 62 percent defensive rate. We’ve seen him forced backward in multiple fights where he’s still quite comfortable and has shown an elite volume ceiling, topping out at 230 significant strikes landed against both Vera and Kris Moutinho.

While I absolutely believe O’Malley is capable of beating Dvalishvili in a similar manner, keeping him at distance and landing the more effective strikes, that outcome may be easier said than done.

Dvalishvili is a once-in-a-generation aggressor who has kept up an absurd pace throughout his UFC career. He’s currently landing 4.50 significant strikes per minute and 6.43 takedowns per 15 minutes. The wrestling attack specifically has made Dvalishvili a menace because he is physical, technical and nearly impossible to slow down.

Wrestling is an exhausting part of mixed martial arts and although it’s very realistic to see an opponent defend one or two takedowns, forcing them to defend dozens and dozens of attempts over 25 minutes can wear down even the best athletes. Dvalishvili is only landing takedowns at a 36 percent accuracy, meaning he is actually attempting 17.86 takedowns per 15 minutes.

In his most recent five-round fight against Petr Yan, a quality opponent who many once thought of as the best fighter in this division, Dvalishvili completely dominated. He attempted 49 takedowns in 25 minutes and landed 11 of them. In addition, Dvalishvili landed another 147 significant strikes to Yan’s 75. He simply could not be stopped.

It cannot be overstated how effective that style is. Even with a superior technical boxer like Yan or O’Malley, they’re going to lose unless they can match Dvalishvili’s pace or put him unconscious.

So that’s the dilemma we have this week. O’Malley is surely the more technical striker, and I expect him to strike more effectively throughout. O’Malley is also a lot bigger than Dvalishvili and will hold a five-inch height edge and a four-inch reach edge. Dvalishvili is not super technical on the feet, and he’s been hurt before, nearly getting knocked out by Marlon Moraes in 2021. I do think it’s possible O’Malley can hurt Dvalishvili early before the wrestling pace comes into play.

However, I think I have to bet on wrestling and pace and lean toward the underdog in Dvalishvili to pull off the upset. We have a limited sample of O’Malley facing wrestlers, but that sample hasn’t looked great. Yes, he was able to knock out Aljamain Sterling in Round 2, but Sterling is a much less physical fighter than Dvalishvili and didn’t pursue a wrestling attack in the early rounds. When O’Malley fought Yan in 2022, Yan successfully landed six takedowns on 13 attempts and earned nearly six minutes of control in a 15-minute fight. Based on that performance, I don’t see a reason to be confident that O’Malley can easily keep Dvalishvili at distance.

If Dvalishvili can survive some early exchanges, my best guess is that he will effectively pressure, wrestle and take over the contest as he has done so many times before. Both men have excellent cardio, and I don’t think Dvalishvili will find an early stoppage — but the longer the fight goes, the tougher Dvalishvili’s wrestling pace will be.

On BetMGM, Dvalishvili is the underdog at +115 and I do think he’s a value at his current line. I don’t mind taking the plus-money, and considering the most likely path to victory for him is a decision, I also don’t mind his decision prop at +150.

Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko

The women’s flyweight division is ready to move on to a new chapter. But before that can happen, Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko need to settle the score inside the Octagon.

Grasso is the current champion and won the belt with a stunning upset over Shevchenko in 2023. At that time, Shevchenko was considered a pound-for-pound elite, and although she was winning the early rounds, Grasso capitalized on a mistake late in the fourth round, took Shevchenko’s back and choked her out.

The pair fought again later in the year in a competitive rematch that resulted in a split-decision draw, which allowed Grasso to retain the belt. Most recently, the pair were opposing coaches on The Ultimate Fighter reality show, setting the stage for their trilogy fight this weekend.

I will be honest and say that I’ve backed Shevchenko in both matchups, and I may lean toward her for a third time, though I’m far from confident she will get her hand raised. Despite failing on two recent occasions, Shevchenko is the most well-rounded fighter in this division. Over the 45 minutes the two have shared the cage, she’s proven to be a superior minute winner to Grasso.

Shevchenko has always been a high-level kickboxer, but she’s also developed an elite wrestling game over the years, which has given her another dimension to dominate her opponents. The trouble for me has always been with Shevchenko’s volume: She’s a more cautious striker and tends to limit engagements. It’s not a horrible style of fighting, but I prefer a higher pace, as offensive production is the most predictive measure of winning rounds. Shevchenko only lands 3.28 significant strikes per minute, which is mediocre and gives Grasso a path to winning. With that said, she’s very defensively sound and only absorbs 2.11 significant strikes per minute with a 62 percent defensive rate. She also lands 2.56 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends at 71 percent.

Grasso is primarily a volume boxer, and I thought her best chance to win would be to keep the fight upright and land a bit more volume than Shevchenko over 15 minutes. That has played a role in Grasso’s success, but her bigger advantage is her submission grappling. Grasso was getting outstruck and outwrestled in the first matchup, but one back-take in the fourth round led her to an immediate submission win. In the rematch, Shevchenko again gave up her back late in the fight, which allowed Grasso to steal the round and ultimately earn the split-decision draw. Grasso also knocked Shevchenko down in the second round of that rematch, and ultimately, she’s had the bigger moments throughout both fights. As the younger fighter, now in her prime, I’m open to the idea that she can continue this trend and capitalize on future mistakes by Shevchenko that earn her the belt.

I also think these moments overshadow the majority of minutes where Shevchenko has been superior. Through 45 minutes of shared cage time, Shevchenko has outlanded Grasso 167 to 143, and Shevchenko has landed eight takedowns, while Grasso has only landed one. These trends are also likely to continue. Grasso only defends takedowns at 59 percent, and Shevchenko is the better offensive wrestler. In both situations where Grasso took the back of Shevchenko, it came from a Shevchenko mistake. One was a failed spinning kick from Shevchenko, and the other was a failed takedown attempt. If Grasso had been earning these positions with takedowns of her own, I would feel much better about backing her.

In striking exchanges, yes, Grasso can box well and be competitive with Shevchenko, but Shevchenko is just not absorbing strikes at a high rate, so it’s tough to project much total offense for Grasso in the matchup.

That’s why, ultimately, I lean toward Shevchenko again. I do expect a competitive fight. If Grasso shows improvements in her wrestling, perhaps she can find another finish. However, Shevchenko is the better control fighter and the better defensive striker, and I have to give her a slight edge overall in winning rounds.

On BetMGM, Grasso is the slight favorite at -140, while Shevchenko is the underdog at +115. I don’t know if Shevchenko has massive value, but I do lean toward her in the matchup, and I don’t think that’s a terrible number to back. I also don’t think Shevchenko will win inside the distance (ITD) at a high rate, so I don’t mind her decision prop at +175, as that may be the most likely outcome of the matchup.

Joshua Van vs. Edgar Chairez

One of my favorite fights from the prelims will feature the return of Joshua Van against Edgar Chairez.

Van is a really fun prospect with a lot of success through his early UFC career, winning three of his first four fights. In that span, he’s shown elite volume production, and has averaged 8.55 significant strikes per minute.

It’s not just the pure volume, either. Van is a relentless combination boxer when he can get on the inside, and he seems to pick up steam as the fight goes on. He’s able to attack multiple levels and wear down and break opponents with this style, and I think he will continue to win fights at a relatively high rate.

Unfortunately, he’s coming off his first TKO loss in July against Charles Johnson, who was able to put him down in the third round. There’s always variance and uncertainty in these situations and I hope he’s had enough time to recover, but I think Van is getting a clear step down in competition this weekend against Chairez. Johnson is a very skilled distance striker who has put on many legit performances in the UFC. Van still struck competitively with him, but Johnson’s success in that matchup was not a particular surprise despite Van being lined as a heavy favorite.

Now he’s facing Chairez, who is 1-2-1 in his tracked career if you include his loss on the Contender Series. Chairez is a tough fighter, but I am not convinced his skill set is enough to win in the UFC consistently. He couldn’t manage enough success against his DWCS opponent, Clayton Carpenter, who outstruck him at distance and took him down three times as well. Tatsuro Taira beat him by decision in his UFC debut, though Chairez scored a knockdown early. While that was impressive, Chairez was ultimately only able to land 25 strikes in 15 minutes and got outwrestled again.

He’s had two fights against Daniel Lacerda, who is 0-5-1 in the UFC and not a real prospect. In those two fights, Chairez was still taken down quickly but managed to find submissions in round one both times. In that sense, this is a massive step up for Chairez against a very quality opponent who can push the pace and is a surprise striker on paper.

Even as a wrestler, Van has had some defensive issues in the past, but he’s still landed four takedowns in his tracked career while only allowing three. His 81 percent takedown defense against superior competition to Chairez gives me some hope he can keep the fight upright if he wants. Chairez is only defending takedowns at 41 percent and has yet to land one single takedown in four fights.

Ultimately, it’s tough for me to project Chairez to be able to keep up with Van. Where is he going to have extended success? My guess is that Chairez could prove a bit dangerous with his hands early. He will be bigger than Van, holding a five-inch reach advantage with a couple extra inches of height. Van is coming off a TKO loss and you never fully know how well fighters recover. Outside of that, I can’t project Chairez to wrestle very successfully, nor is he likely to match Van’s striking volume or effectiveness. If Chairez can’t hurt Van early, he may just get swarmed and beaten up over the remaining rounds, which is the outcome I lean toward.

Van is lined at -250 to win on BetMGM, which isn’t a huge value, but you can also find this line down to -220 on other books, which I prefer. I got in some action myself at -205. Van closed at -250 against Johnson and -300 against Bunes, who are likely both superior fighters to Chairez. I understand there’s some danger and hesitancy with the recent loss, but I respect Van’s talent, and I am willing to back him this weekend.

(Photo of Sean O’Malley: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)