Pick Six Preview: The Utes have more than enough talent to beat the Aggies

SALT LAKE CITY – Utah defeated new conference mate Baylor 23-12 on Saturday at Rice-Eccles Stadium, but because the home and away games were scheduled before the league change, the game will not count toward Big 12 Conference standings.

The bigger story took place off the field—on the opposite sideline, to be precise—when quarterback Cam Rising was thrown into the water cooler and injured his throwing hand.

Rising, of course, missed the entire 2023 season as he recovered from an injury sustained in the previous Rose Bowl, and his health was the weekly headline topic all year. After a career day in the opening win over Southern Utah, Rising helped Utah jump out to a 23-0 lead against Baylor before getting injured in the second quarter.

This is déjà vu for Utah fans after enduring the worst injury season I've ever covered.

Reports on Thursday mentioned that Rising is unlikely to play this week, but it is a finger injury and he is expected to return for the Big 12 opener.

Before league play begins, Utah travels to Logan to face rival Utah State in the “Battle of the Brothers” game. The two played each other annually from 1944-1909, but only three times since Utah's departure to the Pac-12.

Although Utah has won 14 of its last 15 meetings, its only loss came in Logan, where it travels on Saturday (2:30 p.m. MDT, CBSSN).

Match Reviewer

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2021-23): Utah 63.6 (12th of 70 Power Four) | Utah State (25th of 63 Non-AQ)
Season 2023: Utah 52.3 (35th) | Utah State (33rd of 63 non-AQ)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that takes into account the strength of the opponent and is a key part of my preseason evaluation. After consecutive top-10 finishes, Utah slipped to No. 35 (out of 70 Power Four programs) last year. As Utah fans know, their struggles in 2023 were the result of a combined 157 lost starts due to injuries from the two teams.

The 2024 Game Grader rankings will be released after Week 3, and Utah has so far lived up to its preseason top 10 expectations. They beat Southern Utah 49-0 and then took a 23-0 lead before running a safe game plan in the second half with the backup quarterback.

Utah State was projected as the No. 7 seed in the Mountain West during the preseason and is 1-1 after a 48-0 loss to USC.

Utah State with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings per game via Pick Six Previews)

Utah State Offense (2023): 20 of 63 Not AQ
Utah Defense (2023): 19 of 70 Power Four

Utah State has two well-known quarterbacks in the Power Four landscape. Bryson Barnes was the starter for Utah at times last year and even led some heroic drives and wins, including the win against USC in 2023.

Spencer Petras has led Iowa's historically weak offense the past two seasons. He was named the starter at Utah State but is recovering from a Week 1 injury. Barnes started last week against USC.

Regardless of who is under center, the main offensive strategy is to get the ball to star receiver Jalen Royals, who had a 1,000-yard season in 2023 and will again be the most targeted in 2024.

Utah has a clear advantage in this matchup because their defense has been playing phenomenal football so far. They held Baylor to just 223 yards in the first half and just 2.4 yards per play. The pass rush was relentless – Connor O'Toole forced a fumble and the team had eight total tackles for loss.

Utah already has eight sacks, ranking sixth in the country. Utah's defensive performance will increase even further on Saturday.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings per game via Pick Six Previews)

Utah’s Attack (2023): 65. of 70 Power Four
Utah State Defense (2023): 35 of 63 non-AQ

Rising continued his fast start to 2024 with two more touchdowns (on 8-of-14 passing) in the first half before his injury. True freshman Isaac Wilson (Corner Canyon HS) joined the team after Rising's injury and will be the starter on Saturday.

The game plan became noticeably safer and more conservative after the quarterback change, but now, with a full week of starters, the offense should be able to operate a little more offensively.

Head coach Kyle Whittingham reiterated his confidence in Wilson, saying, “He's our guy, he just needs to get his reps.”

Experienced Micah Bernard took on the role of workhorse, rushing for 118 yards on 19 attempts. He will be the running back again on Saturday.

Last week, USC was able to move the ball at will against Utah State's defense, scoring 48 points and over 250 yards passing and running.

Utah is expected to play a safe game plan, relying on the running game and allowing the offensive line to win the battle for consistent running momentum.

Match prediction

Right now, everything is about Rising's injury, but we shouldn't lose sight of how dominant this Utah team has been so far.

The other 21 starters on the roster are playing excellent football and are more than strong enough to help a quarterback making his first start. Utah is coming off a convincing win on Saturday and trails 3-0 heading into league play.

Utah 34 | State of Utah 10