AccuWeather predicts a tropical storm will make landfall in North Carolina on Monday

AccuWeather Global Weather Center – September 14, 2024 – AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting a storm off the southeast coast that strengthen into a named tropical storm before making landfall in the Carolinas on Monday.

“Everyone along coastal North Carolina, southeastern Virginia and northeastern South Carolina needs to be prepared for a stormy end to the weekend and the potential for flooding next week,” said Alan Reppert, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather. “Don't wait to prepare until the storm is named. We're forecasting gusty winds that could reach 80 mph and torrential rains. We don't want anyone to be unprepared and caught off guard, especially in areas prone to flash flooding and beach erosion that could close roads.”

AccuWeather was the first known source to issue a forecast for this developing threat on Saturday afternoon to help families, businesses, emergency responders and government leaders better prepare for impacts. The next name on the tropical storm list for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Helene.

Rain and gusty winds are expected in eastern North Carolina through Sunday night. Reppert said parts of the North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia coast will likely experience rough surf, beach erosion and dangerous rip currents from the weekend into early next week. Dangerous beach conditions are possible from Delaware to Jacksonville, Florida, through midweek.

Widespread wind gusts of 40-60 mph are expected across southeast Virginia, eastern North Carolina, and northeast South Carolina Sunday night into Monday. Along the North Carolina coast, near and east of the storm's landfall locations, gusts of 60-70 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph could cause widespread power outages and significant damage to some buildings.

AccuWeather meteorologists warn that people in eastern North Carolina should also be prepared for the risk of isolated tornadoes as the storm moves inland.

“Make sure your cell phone is charged to receive severe weather alerts. It's important to act immediately and seek shelter if a tornado warning is issued for your area while this storm moves through,” Reppert said. “Be prepared for the possibility of extended power outages. It's a good time to check your flashlight batteries and make sure any supplies of hurricane kits used during Debby are replenished.”

Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected in eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 20 inches.

“We have had plenty of rain in parts of the Carolinas over the past month and a half,” Reppert said. “This storm could cause more flooding problems. It is important that motorists never attempt to drive across flooded roads. Turn around, don't drown. Most water rescues and most deaths during tropical storms and hurricanes involve people attempting to drive across flooded roads.”

Reppert said 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected in central Virginia, and 1 to 2 inches of rain could drench much of West Virginia and southwest Virginia.

“The rain will provide some benefit to us in Virginia and West Virginia, as some areas are experiencing moderate to severe drought, and parts of West Virginia are experiencing exceptional drought,” Reppert explained. “If the rain can move far enough west from this storm, it could help alleviate the drought situation in those areas.”

AccuWeather meteorologists predict that a storm surge of 12-36 inches is expected along the North Carolina coast. Storm surge impacts could extend as far north as Virginia Beach, Virginia, and as far south as Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

“Coastal flooding could be significant as the storm surge is long-lasting and water builds up after multiple cycles of ebb and flow. Parts of the southern Chesapeake Bay and Outer Banks, both on the ocean and sound sides, could experience multiple cycles of flooding and high tides,” Reppert warned. “Several homes on the Outer Banks have succumbed to beach erosion in recent months. There are homes in this area that are dangerously close to the water. Some of these oceanfront homes could be damaged or possibly washed away in this storm.”

As the storm weakens and spends more time over the exceptionally warm ocean waters off the Southeast coast, AccuWeather meteorologists say it could potentially strengthen further, bringing higher rainfall amounts and stronger wind gusts to the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

Due to the effects of flooding, gusty winds, isolated tornadoes and storm surge, this rainstorm is a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ scale for hurricanes in the United States, which warns of localized flooding, damage to unanchored mobile homes, tree damage, localized power outages, and coastal flooding with partial property damage.

Unlike the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms based only on wind speed, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale is based on a wide range of important factors. To provide a more comprehensive picture of a storm's potential impact on lives and livelihoods, the scale takes into account not only wind speed, but also flooding, storm surge, and economic damage and loss. Some of these hazards, such as inland flooding and storm surge in many storms, result in more deaths and economic losses than wind.

AccuWeather meteorologists urge families, businesses, emergency responders and government leaders to stay vigilant as tropical activity intensifies in September.AccuWeather first warned in August.

AccuWeather was the first known source to reduce the forecastfor the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes expected during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season after the first Labor Day weekend without a named storm in decades.