UFC 306 Predictions – Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili: Fight Card, Odds, Expert Tips, Preview, Preliminaries

The biggest promotion in mixed martial arts is making its highly anticipated debut at the Sphere in Las Vegas. UFC 306, called Noche UFCpromises a visual spectacle in honor of Mexican Independence Day weekend and two title fights as the highlight of Saturday's program.

UFC bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley faces top contender Merab Dvalishvili in a modern-day striker vs. wrestler matchup. O'Malley defeated Dvalishvili's close friend Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292 to become champion, paving the way for Dvalishvili to challenge for the title and avenge his teammate.

In the co-main event, Mexican Alexa Grasso defends her women's flyweight title for the third straight fight against arguably the best female 125-pound fighter in history, Valentina Shevchenko. Grasso leads the series 1-0-1 after her last fight at Noche UFC last year, where a controversial 10-8 scoreline for Grasso resulted in a draw.

“It's Noche, but I feel like it's not what Noche is because so many ingredients have been added. It's UFC 306 and the main event is [fighters from] USA and Georgia,” Grasso told CBS Sports. “It's the first event of the Riyadh Season. I really like this idea because it's such a cool thing to show the culture of a country. I hope in the future if it starts with Mexico, maybe UFC will do the same for all the other countries in the future to show their culture and show the world not only how to fight but also bring in the culture of each country.”

With so much going on Saturday night, let's take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds before getting into our staff's predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 306 fight card, odds

• Sean O'Malley (c) -145 vs. Merab Dvalishvili +125, bantamweight title
• Alexa Grasso (c) -140 vs. Valentina Shevchenko +120, women's flyweight title
• Diego Lopes -185 vs. Brian Ortega +155, Featherweights
• Daniel Zellhuber -225 vs. Esteban Ribovics +185, Lightweights
• Ronaldo Rodriguez -145 vs. Ode Osbourne +120, Flyweights
• Norma Dumont -115 vs. Irene Aldana -105, Women's Bantamweights
• Manuel Torres -125 vs. Igancio Bahamondes +105, Lightweights
• Yazmin Jauregui -500 vs. Ketlen Souza +380, women's strawweights
• Joshua Van -220 vs. Edgar Chairez +180, flyweights
• Raul Rosas Jr. -600 vs. Aoriqileng +440, bantamweight

With such a massive main event, the team at CBS Sports set out to create predictions and tips for the main event. Here are your favorites: Brent Brookhouse (combat sportswriter), Brian Campbell (combat sportswriter), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 306 Tips, Predictions

O'Malley vs Dvalishvili

Campbell: This fight is the perfect contrast of styles in many ways, as Dvalishvili will look to put O'Malley on his back on a regular basis with his spamming wrestling attack that has averaged six takedowns per three rounds, while the champion will look to make him pay for closing the distance with outside strikes. Since Dvalishvili's best attacks usually come at close range, he will have to be more responsible than ever when it comes to deciding when and how to pressure his talented opponent. He will also have to make O'Malley pay with ground-and-pound during the time he is on his back. But Dvalishvili not only has the best endurance in the UFC, he also has a nearly unlimited supply. Assuming he's still standing after five rounds, this is a fight that the challenger, who has also shown an extreme level of recovery ability when things get tough, can very well win.

Bach House: Dvalishvili tries takedowns and doesn't quit. That's the entire game plan and it's impressive how well it works at a high level. The problem is that I don't think Dvalishvili can do those takedowns frequently enough, nor can he keep O'Malley grounded reliably enough to win. Dvalishvili has the odd trait of frequently getting hurt by strikes but never being finished by them. O'Malley has the skills to change that if the fight is standing up. I don't think Dvalishvili wins on the scorecards and the possibility of an ending is almost entirely in the champion's favor.

Mahjouri: The champion showed incredible composure in dethroning Aljamain Sterling. O'Malley frustrated Sterling by fending off takedowns before catching him wide open with a lightning-quick punch. Dvalishvili's smash-mouth style and striking inefficiency leave him open. If Henry Cejudo can sting him, O'Malley can take him down. “Suga” will have a harder time with Dvalishvili's relentless grappling than Sterling's methodical approach. The fight could turn in Dvalishvili's favor the longer it goes, but O'Malley is no slouch in the home stretch. O'Malley easily got through five rounds with Marlon Vera and showed grit by getting the win from Petr Yan in Round 3 in a grueling fight. I'll cautiously side with the champion to get the knockout inside three rounds.

Grasso vs Shevchenko

Campbell: Had it not been for the flawed 10-8 scoreline in Round 5 of their rematch last September, Shevchenko would already have been a two-time flyweight champion. But asking such a fighter, now 36, to wait another year after his time as a coach on “The Ultimate Fighter” and defeat a determined champion like Grasso, who continues to evolve with each appearance, may be asking too much of the all-time best. Not with so much time and so much video footage. Perhaps that's why Shevchenko has spoken at length leading up to this trilogy about not leaving the fight to the judges. But Grasso's striking was so effective in the final fight that he often turned Shevchenko into a wrestler. Expect Grasso to outwork the champion for the full 25 minutes in another close and thrilling duel to end the rivalry.

Bach House: Shevchenko should be champion now, but a bizarre 10-8 judge's decision in the fifth round of the rematch resulted in a draw. I can't help but feel that Shevchenko is only slightly better in a rivalry between two very evenly matched fighters, but I have little faith in his choice.

Mahjouri: There is the argument that Shevchenko is the better fighter despite being winless in their two-fight streak. Much like Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira, it seems only a matter of time before Shevchenko scores. Her age makes the difference. Grasso, 32, has grown as a fighter between the first and second fights. Grasso arguably showed more potential when she held Shevchenko to a draw in the rematch than she did with an opportunistic submission in the title fight, which she lost. Shevchenko, 36, is also painfully adamant that she won the second fight and doesn't need to make any changes. Her repeated disdain for Grasso gives me too much to think about. I'm taking Grasso by decision.

Way: While O'Malley deserves respect as a champion and as someone who proved with his win over Aljamain Sterling that he can prevent the takedowns that make Sterling and Dvalishvili so dangerous, I believe the bookies' initial assessment of this fight. Dvalishvili was about a -190 favorite to begin with before the betting odds were cut to a slight underdog on fight day. Betting odds are designed to create two-way action, meaning there was plenty of money on “Suga” here, but this is one of the most dramatic swings in a line I've seen in a title fight like this. Dvalishvili's world-class stamina and energy tank will help him drag O'Malley into deep waters. While Sterling couldn't secure the takedowns against O'Malley, Dvalishvili is a whole different caliber. The Georgian manages inside the Sphere.

Ortega vs Lopes

Campbell: The difference between the two fighters in this action-packed affair lies primarily in their consistency. The 29-year-old Lopes appears to be peaking quickly after suffering a loss in his UFC debut, ending five of his last six wins overall by stoppage. Ortega, on the other hand, never quite leaves you guessing whether he's coming or going. Although the 33-year-old Ortega ended a nearly two-year hiatus with an emotional win over Yair Rodriguez in February, he lost three of his previous four fights prior to this fight and appears to be constantly battling injuries. Ortega will likely always remain a tremendous threat on the ground, but doesn't show enough attention to detail in defense or head movement to be taken seriously as a consistent title contender just yet. This has all the makings of a breakout win for Lopes, especially if he uses his high-pressure attacking style to lure Ortega into a stand-up firefight.

Bach House: Ortega has a lot of experience and doesn't fight often enough to be trusted to take on a young, aggressive opponent like Lopes. Ortega also has far too many defensive gaps in his striking techniques. Lopes' game is tailor-made for opponents who leave as many gaps as Ortega. Dan Ige gave Lopes hell in a matter of hours at UFC 303, but the circumstances of that fight were so odd that Lopes should probably be given the no. Lopes has prepared for this opportunity twice and should be ready to deliver on Saturday.

Mahjouri: This will be a lot of fun. Both men have a wide arsenal of strikes and submissions and are willing to take damage. It's hard to judge Lopes' close fight against Dan Ige, as he was arbitrarily booked hours before the fight. Ortega takes nearly 2.5 more punches per minute, but title fights against featherweight greats Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway skew that statistic badly. Lopes has faced far weaker competition, but has 10% worse striking and takedown defense. Ortega has taken a lot of damage, but he can rely on his experience to take two rounds off the surging Lopes.

Who will win UFC 306: O'Malley v Dvalishvil, and which UFC props should you target? Visit SportsLine now for detailed UFC Fight Night picks, all from the MMA expert who's made more than $1,200 picking the UFC main card, and find out.