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Fantasy Football Panic Meter: Is it time to worry about Marvin Harrison Jr. yet?

It's so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to observe and analyze a player's performance. But fear not – Dalton Del Don is here to assess exactly how worried we should be – if at all.

Andrews was only able to catch two passes for 14 scoreless yards in Week 1, while his teammate Isaiah Likely finished as the best tight end in the fantasy world. Likely looks like a shooting star, going 8-88-1 with Andrews on the field in Thursday's season opener. He likely led all tight ends in fantasy usage after positive offseason reports suggested he would play a much larger role in Baltimore's offense in 2024.

It's possible Andrews is still slowed by offseason surgery (tightrope?), but he had the second-best separation win rate among tight ends in Week 1 (despite additional attention on defense). Additionally, Andrews was double-covered on a higher percentage of his routes than in any other game of the 2021–23 season; he also struggled mightily in six career games against Kansas City as the Chiefs focus their defense on stopping him. Andrews' usage was also encouraging, as he ran a ton of routes and lined up in the slot or outside on 78% of them.

Andrews has been a top-five fantasy TE for five straight seasons and was the most involved pass receiver in the red zone last year, so don't panic too much.

It's rare that two tight ends in the same offense are fantasy relevant, but this is the right setup for it. Andrews is my TE4 in Week 2, probably TE7.

Harrison had an NFL debut to forget, dropping his first catchable pass and finishing with just one pass reception for four scoreless yards. The rookie had a 95% route participation mark, but Greg Dortch's first-read pass percentage was double that. It was just a game with windy conditions and Buffalo “clouded him” on defense, but there were other discouraging signs.

Harrison finished last in Average Separation Score among all wide receivers in Week 1 and was also last in Win Rate% among rookie wideouts. In addition, Harrison recorded the third lowest maximum speed in a game since the start of last season. Keenan Allen reportedly weighs over 230 pounds and was faster than Harrison in protective gear on Sunday.

Arizona was among the league's worst in pre-snap motion in Week 1, when Kyler Murray completed 0 of 7 passes for 10 yards or more downfield. Murray was the league's worst thrower last season, when the Cardinals finished last in fantasy points to outside receivers. Harrison averaged 12.1 yards in route depth, which would have been the highest in the league in 2023.

Harrison was a superstar and definitely showed speed in college (though he didn't see time at the Combine), and he would have scored a game-winning 34-yard touchdown on Sunday if Murray had waited a second longer to look his way. That would have dramatically changed the perception of MHJ in Week 1, though the other concerns remain.

Harrison will obviously improve, but was drafted as a top-20 pick and WR9 in Yahoo leagues with no NFL track record. Fantasy managers have to be concerned after a week of results.

London was selected in the top 25 and drafted as the WR10 despite averaging 70.5 catches, 886 receiving yards and three touchdowns in his first two NFL seasons. Kirk Cousins ​​and Zac Robinson were supposed to be big additions to the offense, but Week 1 showed a 36-year-old QB who was a shadow of his former self after his Achilles surgery. While London's game record (3-2-15-0) was concerning, the manner in which it came about was perhaps even more concerning.

The Falcons had the second-lowest pass completion rate above expectations, being in pistol or shotgun on 96% of their snaps, with each formation showing a big run/pass tell. Atlanta also didn't run a single snap with play action the entire game, presumably to protect Cousins. In fact, Cousins ​​moved an average of 3.1 yards per dropback, which is his least movement in a single game of his career by more than one meter. Cousins ​​did not attempt a single pass attempt over 20 yards and London's aDOT was a modest 8.7 yards. London and Kyle Pitts combined for fewer targets (six) and receiving yards (41) than Ray-Ray McCloud did in Week 1.

The choice of Michael Penix is ​​starting to make more sense.

There were some positives, though. London had a 100% route participation rate, a big improvement from last year's 86%. Atlanta's offense should be off to a slow start after implementing a new system and without Cousins, who had no appearances at all in the preseason. The Steelers were a tough early opponent, including elite corner Joey Porter Jr., who shadowed London on 65% of his routes. Additionally, Raheem Morris insists Cousins ​​is healthy and there is no correlation between plays and quarterback health. Still, the panic level is medium to high considering how much projection has been priced into London's ADP.

Kyle Pitts caught a touchdown, but given the new information from Week 1, I would prefer Brock Bowers.

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Burrow was the QB27 in Week 1 and ranked among the worst quarterbacks in overall EPA, with nearly 70% of his passes falling short of the sticks despite being under pressure. the third lowest rate of his career. The Patriots have a strong defense, but Ja'Marr Chase has only had one pass 10+ yards down the field (only the fifth time in his career). Burrow's average intended air yards are sixth-lowest in the league, which has been an issue the past two seasons; Burrow has become a check-down artist since opposing defenses began using two high safeties frequently. He ranked 38th in downfield passing rate in 2022 and 32nd in intended air yards per attempt last season.

We don't want to overreact to just one game, and Chase has barely practiced (and Tee Higgins has been out), but Burrow's health is also a concern.

Burrow suffered a rare season-ending wrist injury last year that no NFL QB has ever experienced, and he was frequently sidelined on Sunday. He appeared to show good velocity on his throws, and it was a positive sign that the Bengals posted the highest passing percentage above expectations. Still, this version of Burrow doesn't resemble the one that posted 8.9 YPA in 2021, and some panic is certainly warranted considering he was drafted ahead of Jayden Daniels as a top 10 fantasy QB.

Kincaid was limited to a 2-1-11-0 line in Week 1, which wasn't what fantasy managers expected with Stefon Diggs coming out of Buffalo. Kincaid's Yahoo ADP was 58.4, so expectations are high. Kincaid's fantasy production was cut in half last season when Dawson Knox was healthy, so some panic is warranted after a near-zero performance in Week 1.

However, his 83% route completion was TE1-worthy and incredibly encouraging. Sunday's game was windy, with none of the receivers managing more than 51 yards on either side and Josh Allen attempting just 23 passes. Tight ends struggled across the league in Week 1 and Kincaid got a lot of attention.

Kincaid is a trade target if his fantasy managers hit the panic button.

Johnson was a bust in his first game in Carolina, and there weren't many encouraging signs for the future. Johnson, who has been much more productive in the past against man-heavy defenses like New Orleans, was limited to 19 scoreless yards in an indoor game and on a Carolina passing game when Carolina was down by a lot. He was outperformed by freshman Xavier Legette and had fewer receiving yards than Jonathan Mingo.

Johnson has a big Bryce Young problem.

Young was awful, with a sixth percentile CPOE (-15.3) and the second-highest missed throw rate. He was caught on his first pass attempt of the game and his second after halftime. New schemes require patience, but Young continues to look borderline dysfunctional. Johnson had the fourth-highest tight coverage target rate in Week 1, when the expected Dave Canales magic never materialized. In fact, Carolina had the third-lowest pre-snap motion rate.

Johnson was drafted as a top-100 player, but his panic level is extremely high. He belongs on the fantasy bench.

Olave was drafted as the WR13 in Yahoo leagues, one spot ahead of Cooper Kupp. Like London, a big improvement was expected, so a 2-2-11-0 line was a daunting start, especially in a game where New Orleans scored 47 points. But Olave led the Saints in snaps and routes, and the game script played a big role in his disappointing performance; Derek Carr attempted just seven passes after halftime, thanks to the lopsided score.

Most importantly, New Orleans has, as expected, greatly increased its use of play action (after finishing last in 2023) and motion under new OC Klint Kubiak. In fact, the Saints ranked third in play action rate and led the league with an 88% pre-snap motion rate in Week 1. Olave's yards per route run have shot through the roof over his career when he's used motion, so big fantasy games are ahead.

Although the result was not positive, the new coaching was. So you have to continue to be patient with Olave.

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