What a 0-2 start means for an NFL team's playoff chances

NFL teams try to win every week, but even the best teams struggle sometimes. A losing streak doesn't mean a team will miss the playoffs, but a losing streak early in the season can be difficult to overcome.

Excluding unexpected ties, 16 teams finished Week 1 with a 0-1 record. One statistic that has been mentioned regularly over the years has been the number of teams that start 0-2 and eventually make the playoffs. It's a small number, but the context has changed since 2020 and 2021. In 2020, the NFL expanded its playoff participation to 14 teams and in 2021 to a 17-game schedule. An 0-2 start still requires some work to overcome, but an 0-2 start in the 17-game schedule and with an extra playoff spot in each conference is a little easier than before.

In the last three seasons since expanding to a 17-game schedule, 21 teams started the season 0-2. Only two ultimately made the playoffs. In 2023, nine teams started the season 0-2 and the Houston Texans were the only team to make the playoffs. They finished the season 10-7 and won the AFC South. The year before, five teams started 0-2 and only the Cincinnati Bengals made the playoffs. They finished the season 12-4 and won the AFC North. In 2021, seven teams started the season 0-2 and none of them made the playoffs.

In 2020, when the league expanded to a 14-team playoff field, 11 teams started with an 0-2 record and none of those teams made the playoffs.

Before 2020, the NFL introduced a 12-team playoff format in 1990. Between 1990 and 2019, 12% of teams that started 0-2 made the playoffs.