Arizona 'indispensable' in US Senate battle as Ruben Gallego maintains lead over Kari Lake

Democrats cannot retain control of the U.S. Senate unless Arizona Congressman Ruben Gallego defeats Republican nominee Kari Lake.

This is the assessment of the party’s chief strategist in the Senate, Senator Gary Peters (Democrats from Michigan).

“We don't have a majority if we lose Arizona,” he told Cronkite News during a roundtable with a small group of regional reporters at the offices of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, of which he is chairman. “That's essential.”

Lake, a former Phoenix news anchor who narrowly lost the 2022 gubernatorial election, is closely allied with former President Donald Trump.

She is competing with Gallego, who has been elected five times to the U.S. House of Representatives, for the seat held by Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who is not seeking a second term.

Sinema, the first female senator from Arizona, won as a Democrat in 2018 but gave up her party affiliation in 2022 and became an independent.

Democrats control the Senate by a narrow 51-49 margin, with Sinema and two other independents working with them to form a majority.

Republicans hold 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs in November, and analysts don't see any problems for the GOP in any of those states. Democrats are on the defensive. The seats they hold in Montana and Ohio are considered to be tied, leaving no room for error in Arizona.

Spokesman Tate Mitchell of the National Republican Senatorial Committee said Arizona is also a priority for Republicans.

“Arizona remains one of the biggest winning opportunities for Republicans this cycle,” he said.

An August 28 Fox News poll gave Gallego a 15 percentage point lead over Lake, although other recent polls showed a close race. A September 4 CNN poll gave Gallego's lead at just 3 percentage points, which is within the margin of error.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race as “more Democratic,” one notch above neck-and-neck.

Money flowed into the election campaign from both sides.

According to campaign finance watchdog OpenSecrets, at least $62 million had been spent by candidates or outside groups by the end of June, when Gallego led Lake 3-1.

The last Senate election in Arizona, in which Democratic Senator Mark Kelly defeated Republican candidate Blake Masters, saw approximately $258 million spent. According to OpenSecrets, this was the third most expensive Senate race in 2022.

In the home stretch, Peters said, the DSCC will invest in more “practical” resources, such as hiring poll workers to go door-to-door and increase voter turnout.

In the final eight weeks of the campaign, Republicans will step up their efforts in Arizona, said Tate of the NRSC.