Series preview: Twins in Guardians

The Guardians and Twins will play the final four games of their season series from today through Thursday, with Cleveland holding a 6.5-game lead over Minnesota and a 7-to-2 lead in the season series.

The Twins are 79-70 with a run differential of +34, are seventh in MLB in team wRC+ at 110, 26th in baserunning runs above average at -10.1, 13th in defensive fWAR at -13.7, third in starting pitcher SIERA at 3.76, and eighth in bullpen SIERA at 3.57.

The Guardians are 86-64 with a run differential of +81, are 16th in MLB in team wRC+ at 99, 18th in baserunning runs above average at -2, 3rd in defensive fWAR at 15.9, 21st in starting pitcher SIERA at 4.25, and 2nd in bullpen SIERA at 3.37.

I find it funny that the Guardians are better than the Twins in defense, bullpen, and baserunning, but the Twins have clear advantages in starting pitching and hitting. Still, Cleveland has a clear lead in the division and has dominated the season series. Even one more Cleveland win would be devastating to the Twins' last hopes of winning the Central.

Pairings:

Game 1: Pablo Lopez, RHP (3.35 SIERA) vs. Matthew Boyd, LHP (3.52 SIERA), Monday, 6:40 p.m. EST

Game Two: Zebby Matthews, RHP (3.79 SIERA) vs. Gavin Williams, RHP (4.20 SIERA), Tuesday, 6:40 p.m. EST

Game Three: Bailey Ober, RHP (3.69 SIERA) vs. Tanner Bibee, RHP (3.57 SIERA), Wednesday, 6:40 p.m. EST

Game Four: Simeon Woods-Richardson, RHP (4.57 SIERA) vs. Joey Cantillo, LHP (3.78 SIERA), Thursday, 1:10 p.m. EST

analysis: I hope Guardians fans cheer the Guardians in large numbers to crush the Twins' division hopes. But this series will be tough. The Guardians will have to find a way to score some runs. The Twins will definitely have watched how teams like the Rays have kept the Guardians' hitters off balance (foul throws, constant offspeed diet, etc.). Interestingly, if Cleveland wins two games, a playoff spot is assured and I'm excited to see how much they celebrate. In my humble opinion, the team needs to have a division win and a second-place finish assured, so I hope the playoff spot celebrations are a little more muted.