Superbugs could kill 39 million people by 2050 as drug resistance increases | Global Development

According to a new global analysis, superbugs will kill more than 39 million people by 2050. Older people are particularly at risk.

While the number of deaths due to drug resistance is declining among young children due to improved vaccinations and hygiene, the study found an opposite trend among grandparents.

By mid-century, it is projected that 1.91 million people worldwide will die each year directly from antimicrobial resistance (AMR) – where bacteria evolve to the point where the drugs commonly used to fight them no longer work. In 2021, the figure was 1.14 million. AMR will play a role in 8.2 million deaths per year, compared to 4.71 million previously.

The study, published in the Lancet, was conducted by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (Gram) Project and is the first global analysis of AMR trends over time.

The researchers used data from 204 countries and territories to produce death estimates for the period 1990 to 2021 and projections through 2050.

They also concluded that more effective infection prevention, improved access to health care and the development of new antibiotics could prevent millions of deaths worldwide.

Study author Dr Mohsen Naghavi of the University of Washington's Institute of Health Metrics (IHME), said: “Antimicrobial drugs are one of the cornerstones of modern healthcare and increasing resistance to them is a cause for concern.

“These findings underscore that antibacterial resistance has been a significant threat to global health for decades and that this threat is growing,” he said.

This month, world leaders will meet in New York to discuss antimicrobial resistance at the UN General Assembly. They are expected to endorse a political declaration to step up action on antimicrobial resistance. Campaigners hope that this declaration will include a goal of reducing deaths from antibiotic resistance by 10% by 2030.

The study, which involved more than 500 researchers from institutions around the world, found a “remarkable” decline in AMR deaths among children under five – from 488,000 to 193,000 – between 1990 and 2022. They are expected to halve again by 2050.

Although there are fewer deaths from infections among young children, drug-resistant bacteria are the cause.

And the number of deaths is also increasing in all other age groups: the number of deaths due to antibiotic resistance among those over 70 has already increased by 80 percent in the last three decades, and by 2050 it is expected to rise by 146 percent, from 512,353 to 1.3 million.

Dr Tomislav Meštrović, assistant professor at the University North in Croatia and associate professor at IHME, said the trend reflects the rapidly ageing population, with older people more vulnerable to infection.

“About three-quarters of AMR infections are associated with hospital-acquired infections, for example, and a rapidly ageing population also requires more hospital care,” he said. Older people are more likely to suffer from chronic diseases such as diabetes and heart disease.

“For example, you put an infusion [intravenous] If an infection occurs and bacteria enter the blood, those bacteria are likely to be more resistant,” he said.

Vaccinations are often less effective in older people because the immune system deteriorates with age and older people are more susceptible to reactions to antibiotics, he added.

There were fewer deaths from antibiotic resistance in 2021 than in 2019, but researchers said this was likely only a temporary decline due to fewer infections as a result of Covid-19 control measures.

The study predicted that most deaths in the future will occur in South Asian countries such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, as well as other parts of South and East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

They are among the areas where the strongest growth in AMR is already being seen and could particularly benefit from improvements in general infection treatment and wider access to antibiotics.