Analyzing the Brewers’ potential wild card opponents

Coming off a big series win over the Diamondbacks and a series-opening win over the Phillies, the Brewers’ magic number now sits at two, meaning any combination of two Brewers wins and Cubs losses would clinch the NL Central division.

After they surpass that goal, Milwaukee’s next potential hurdle is trying to move into one of the top two positions in the NL, which would mean a bye in the playoffs. To do that, the Brewers would need to pass either the Dodgers (two games ahead — L.A. owns the tiebreaker) or the Phillies (three games ahead — Philadelphia currently holds the tiebreaker, but the Brewers could potentially take the tiebreaker with a sweep this week).

For this exercise, let’s assume the Brewers fall short of that coveted No. 2 seed and enter the playoffs as the No. 3 seed (again). That would mean they’d take on the last wild card team in the field. Here’s how the wild card standings look entering Tuesday’s play:

1. San Diego Padres: 86-65 (+3.5 WCGB)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks: 83-67 (+1 WCGB)
3. New York Mets: 82-68 (0 WCGB)
4. Atlanta Braves: 81-69 (1 WCGB)
5. Chicago Cubs: 77-73 (5 WCGB)

I’m going to take the Cubs out of contention here, though I’ll probably eat my words. That leaves us with four teams for three spots, separated by 4.5 total games. Let’s take a look at how the Brewers stack up against each of these teams.

San Diego Padres

If you’re looking at this purely from a games-away-from-playing-them standpoint, the Padres are the least likely of these four teams to face off with the Brewers in the NL Wild Card Series. That’s probably good news for Milwaukee, as the Brewers are just 2-5 against the Padres this season, the worst record they have against any of these opponents — and that was before the Padres got hot out of the All-Star break.

On offense, the Padres have eight players with double-digit homers, led by Manny Machado (26), rookie Jackson Merrill (24), and Jurickson Profar (23). Plus, Fernando Tatis Jr. has 18 despite missing more than two months due to injury. That’s not even mentioning Luis Arraez, who has as many walks as strikeouts this season (16 of each), as he’s hitting .330/.359/.403 with 153 hits in 108 games. As a team, the Padres’ offense ranks among the league leaders in most offensive categories: 175 homers (12th), .266 batting average (first), .747 OPS (seventh), 719 runs (seventh), and 111 steals (14th).

On the pitching side, the Padres have plenty of threatening names on the bump. Dylan Cease is the clear ace, leading the team with 215 strikeouts this season, but Michael King has a better ERA at 3.06. Knuckleballer Matt Waldron is third on the team in strikeouts, though his ERA (4.79) is a tad high. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish have both spent chunks of time on the IL but are healthy now, so San Diego shouldn’t have a problem lining up a strong rotation of Cease-King-Darvish-Musgrove in the postseason.

On the relief side, Yuki Matsui leads the team with 61 appearances, and Robert Suarez has turned into one of the better closers in the league with 33 saves and a 2.55 ERA over 60 appearances. Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejon, and the three big deadline acquisitions of Tanner Scott, Jason Adam, and Bryan Hoeing make this one of the scarier bullpens Milwaukee could face in the postseason. Since the All-Star break, the Padres rank sixth in the league with a 3.46 team ERA and 489 strikeouts over 465 ²⁄₃ innings.

The Padres are also one of the healthiest teams in the potential playoff field. Outside of Ha-Seong Kim (who is likely to return either later this month or early in the playoffs), the Padres don’t have any notable injuries — Stephen Kolek and Luis Patiño occupy the 60-day injured list and that’s it.

All in all, the Padres are, in my opinion, the scariest, most well-rounded team among these options.

Arizona Diamondbacks

We already got a sneak preview of this matchup in Phoenix this week, plus we know what happened last year. We’ll got yet another preview this weekend when the Brewers welcome the Diamondbacks to town for a four-game set beginning Thursday night. We saw in both the 2023 NL Wild Card Series and in the three-game series this past weekend that this Arizona team has no quit, making them another scary matchup come October.

The Diamondbacks offense is anchored by the big four of Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Eugenio Suárez, and Corbin Carroll. While Carroll has had a down season, he’s been stellar the last few months, with a .268/.351/.593 line with 14 homers, 35 RBIs, and 10 steals in 52 games since the All-Star break. Marte earned an All-Star appearance and has hit .292/.366/.553 with a team-high 32 homers and 87 RBIs this season. Suárez continues to bring the pop at age 33, slugging 28 homers and a team-high 95 RBIs this year. Walker provides plus defense at first base and brings offense to the table with 25 homers and 78 RBIs this season.

Beyond those four, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (returning from injury this week), Jake McCarthy, Gabriel Moreno, and Geraldo Perdomo are the other key cogs featured in this lineup. The Diamondbacks have the fourth most homers in baseball (193) and are also near the top of the league in batting average (.264 – second), OPS (.778 – first), and stolen bases (104 – 15th). Another well-rounded offense.

Brandon Pfaadt, Zac Gallen, and Ryne Nelson (who is expected to return from injury later this month) lead the D-backs in starts this season, though only Gallen sports an ERA under 4.00 among regular starters. Jordan Montgomery is also with Arizona, but he’s had a terrible season, with a 6.44 ERA over 19 starts before moving to the bullpen in late August. Pfaadt and Gallen were all Arizona needed against Milwaukee last year, but it looks like Arizona doesn’t have much to offer behind them at this point. That bodes well for the Brewers as a potential opponent.

In relief, the Diamondbacks have Joe Mantiply, Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson, Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, and Paul Sewald. That’s a solid group of arms in the late innings, and they could be perfectly built for the postseason with a not-so-deep rotation. Still, I think the Brewers can match them in this regard.

While I think most people expected the Brewers to get past Arizona last season, the Diamondbacks caught fire at the right time and made the Crew look silly at American Family Field. On paper, this Arizona team is a tough matchup, but I think the Brewers can get past them in another three-game series.

New York Mets

If the season ended today, the Brewers would welcome the Mets to town for a best-of-three series, which would be the second-consecutive series against them after they end the regular season hosting the Mets from Sept. 27-29. Milwaukee last faced them in the first series of the season, when the Crew swept the Mets at Citi Field.

Among the teams on this list, the Mets are one of the less healthy squads. They’ve lost pitchers Brooks Raley, Dedniel Núñez, and Drew Smith, as well as infielder Ronny Mauricio to season-ending injuries. Pitcher Sean Reid-Foley has been out since mid-June after being one of the top arms out of the bullpen for them (1.66 ERA and 25 strikeouts over 21 ²⁄₃ innings). Kodai Senga made just one appearance before heading back to the IL, though he could return before a postseason run. Utilityman Jeff McNeil fractured his wrist and won’t return until later in the postseason, and pitchers Paul Blackburn and Christian Scott are also shelved.

Offensively, Pete Alonso leads the team with 32 homers to go with 81 RBIs. Francisco Lindor is an MVP candidate looking to finish with another 30-30 season as he’s hitting .271/.342/.494 with 31 homers, 86 RBIs, and 27 steals this year. Mark Vientos has provided surprise pop with 24 homers and 62 RBIs in 100 games, and Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Martinez, Harrison Bader, Francisco Alvarez (when healthy), and Starling Marte (again, when healthy) have also been productive. Music sensation Jose Iglesias is hitting .323/.372/.436 and former Brewers Tyrone Taylor and Jesse Winker have also been serviceable options. As a team, this Mets offense ranks sixth with 189 homers, 12th with a .247 batting average, 11th with a .734 OPS, ninth with 710 runs, and 16th with 98 steals.

On the pitching side, the Mets have had three reliable starters in Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Brewer-killer Jose Quintana. Each of those guys will surpass 30 starts this season (Manaea already has 30 and Severino and Quintana are each at 29). All three of them also have ERAs in the threes, with Manaea leading the group at 3.26. David Peterson is probably the leading fourth option with a 2.85 ERA over 19 starts.

Out of the bullpen, Adam Ottavino leads the team with 54 appearances. Reed Garrett and Edwin Díaz are the strikeout guys, though Díaz has had an up-and-down season that saw him lose the closer role for a short stint. Beyond those three, Phil Maton (2.38 ERA in 26 appearances) is probably the top option. Not the greatest bullpen out there. As a team, the Mets rank 15th in team ERA at 3.94, with a 3.93 starter ERA (12th) and a 3.95 reliever ERA (17th).

So far, I like Milwaukee’s odds against the Diamondbacks and the Mets much more than I like their chances against the Padres (again, on paper).

Atlanta Braves

The Braves, like the Mets, have had their share of injury troubles. Switch-hitting second baseman Ozzie Albies is making his way back from a fractured wrist (though it sounds like he’ll be exclusively a right-handed batter because he has discomfort swinging as a lefty for the time being). Third baseman Austin Riley is out until at least the postseason with a fractured hand and pitcher Reynaldo López is out until late September with shoulder inflammation. Among season-ending injuries, there’s Angel Perdomo, Ray Kerr, A.J. Minter, and the big two of Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. Don’t count this team out though — remember, they won the 2021 World Series without Acuña.

Marcell Ozuna has put his name among MVP contenders with a .303/.379/.551 line, including 37 homers, 28 doubles, and 98 RBIs. Matt Olson has taken a step back with “only” 26 homers, 37 doubles, and 89 RBIs. Orlando Arcia has slugged 16 homers, Jarred Kelenic has 15 homers, and the catching tandem of Travis d’Arnaud and Sean Murphy has combined for 23 homers. Michael Harris II, Adam Duvall, and Whit Merrifield are among the other recognizable faces on this squad. As a team, the Braves aren’t quite as incredible as they’ve been in recent years, but they’re still one of the better offensive teams: 190 homers (fifth), .240 batting average (19th), .716 OPS (13th), 644 runs (16th). They’re tied for dead last in steals (63), though that’s at least partly attributable to the loss of Acuña, who had 73 steals in 2023.

The Braves have one of the best starting rotations when healthy, and even with Strider and López currently out, Max Fried, Chris Sale, and Charlie Morton is not a shabby trio when it comes time for the playoffs. Sale is the leading contender for NL Cy Young with a 2.35 ERA and 219 strikeouts over 172 ²⁄₃ innings; Fried has a 3.49 ERA and 151 strikeouts in 159 ²⁄₃ innings; and Morton has a 4.01 ERA with 161 strikeouts in 155 innings. If López returns in time for the postseason, could easily take Morton’s place with a 2.03 ERA over 128 ²⁄₃ innings with 137 strikeouts this year. Pair the fact that both Sale and Fried are lefties with the fact that Milwaukee is notoriously meh against lefties, and I do not like this matchup in a short series.

In relief, Raisel Iglesias has been one of the most dominant closers this season, with a sterling 1.87 ERA and 31 saves over 59 appearances. His ERA was all the way down to 1.16 before Sunday night when he allowed five runs in less than an inning of work against the Dodgers. Prior to that appearance, he hadn’t allowed an earned run since June 16(!) Joe Jiménez leads the team with 62 appearances, sporting a 2.45 ERA. Aaron Bummer, Pierce Johnson, Dylan Lee, and 41-year-old Jesse Chavez are among the other key arms out of the ‘pen. As a staff, the Braves rank second with a 3.55 ERA, including a 3.67 starter ERA (third) and a 3.34 reliever ERA (third).

Put simply: I do not want to face Atlanta in a short series, even after — especially after — Milwaukee crushed them in Atlanta in early August.

Prediction

A lot can obviously happen in two weeks, especially when there are four teams separated by 4.5 games fighting for three playoff spots. All four of these teams are obviously scary for different reasons, but I really don’t want the Brewers to have to take on the Padres or the Braves in a short best-of-three series.

The Diamondbacks look like the best matchup, but we know how that turned out last season, and Arizona has been one of the better teams since the All-Star break (honestly, all of these teams with the exception of maybe Atlanta are among the top post-break teams). That being said, I think I’d most be inclined to take the Mets if I could pick an opponent.

They’ll be in Milwaukee already, giving the Brewers a preview of the postseason matchup (that obviously goes both ways), plus the Mets have a pretty good chance of needing to win to make the postseason, meaning they hopefully won’t have their top arms lined up for the short NL Wild Card Series. No matter who they face, the Brewers will face a difficult challenge as one of the more inexperienced teams in baseball.