Atlanta Braves start last away tour in 2024 against strong Reds pitchers

The final road trip of the regular season is upon us, as the Atlanta Braves face six road games against two teams that the Braves currently have a clear lead over in the standings. However, this is no guarantee of success for the Braves here in 2024 – Atlanta has a 48-39 record against teams with a record above .500, but is just 33-30 against teams with a negative record so far this season. They have regularly found themselves in tough battles with teams that aren't exactly great, and I don't think anyone would be shocked if this road trip against the Reds and Marlins is incredibly grueling to watch.

The Braves have already had a recent reminder of what the Cincinnati Reds are capable of, as Atlanta saw them eight days ago and only managed two hits against Cincinnati. In fact, Cincinnati's pitching was the only thing that kept them from having a complete and utter nightmare season. They have an overall ERA of 93 and a FIP of 97 – both numbers either firmly in the top ten or just outside. While their xFIP (105) suggests there may be some luck involved here, the point remains that this is a tough team to deal with on the mound.

Still, the Braves might get a little lucky in terms of pitching methods. They won't see Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez or Andrew Abbott. They will, however, face a trio of pitchers who are dangerous in their own ways. Combine that with Atlanta's aforementioned record against teams under .500, as well as the presence of Elly De La Cruz, and you have a recipe for what is likely to be a nerve-wracking three days of baseball for the Braves.

Tuesday, September 17, 6:40 p.m. ET, Bally Sports South

RHP Grant Holmes (4 GS, 54.2 IP, 91 ERA-, 78 FIP-, 23.7 K%, 4.8 BB%)

Grant Holmes was thrust into the starting lineup after Reynaldo López was moved to the IL, and this was probably the easiest solution for now to fill López's hole in the rotation. Holmes has played very well as part of Atlanta's bullpen so far this season, and has been perfectly capable whenever he's been used as a starter. He's made it to at least the fifth inning in each of his four starts so far this season, and even has one seven-inning start under his belt. Considering how this offense has performed in the past, I'm not too worried that Holmes could get in trouble, and as long as he continues to live up to the standard he's set this season, he should be fine.

LHP Brandon Williamson (2 GS, 13 IP, 91 ERA-, 100 FIP-, 20.1 K%, 6.0 BB%*)

Last season, Brandon Williamson was a key part of Cincinnati's rotation as a rookie. However, he began this season on the IL and after spending some time on the 60-day IL, he was finally activated earlier this month. He has made three appearances so far this season and has slowly but surely improved in those three appearances. He made it to the fourth inning on September 1st, the fifth inning on September 6th, and in his most recent appearance he went a full five innings. In each of those appearances he allowed just one run and either three or one hit. In his two starts, he struck out five batters while on the field.

While Williamson doesn't come into this game with much experience, he definitely hasn't looked bad since returning from injury. If he continues to improve and Atlanta goes on a power outage, this could be a long night at the plate if the perfect storm hits.

*Figures are career averages

Wednesday, September 18, 6:40 p.m. ET, Bally Sports South

RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (18 GS, 103.2 IP, 89 ERA-, 84 FIP-, 26.7 K%, 4.7 BB%)

Schwellenbach's last start went pretty well, as he was actually able to rebound from a rocky start against the Blue Jays by going all out against the Dodgers. The rookie pitcher struck out six batters in six innings while allowing just four hits and two runs, which is more in line with what we're used to seeing from Schwellenbach here in 2024. Considering how rocky Cincinnati's offense looked at times and how consistent Schwellenbach was, I expect he can do the job and keep Atlanta in the game, at least in this particular game.

RHP Jakob Junis (4 GS, 56 IP, 64 ERA, 91 FIP, 19.5 K%, 3.3 BB%)

Junis is now on his fourth team in four seasons, having started with the Royals, spent two seasons with the Giants, and started this season with the Brewers before finishing with the Reds. Of course, Junis has figured it out since arriving in Cincinnati and is one of the many reliable pitchers on Cincinnati's pitching staff. He's only been in the starting lineup three times recently, but in those starts he's been a tough opponent.

He threw four scoreless innings against Oakland on August 27, then five scoreless innings against the Mets on September 7, then followed that up with five more innings where he allowed just one run in his last start against the Cardinals. He may not have a lot of innings or a long track record, but the Reds are certainly getting some great performances out of him right now.

Thursday, September 19, 1:10 p.m. ET, Bally Sports South

LHP Chris Sale (28 GS, 172.2 IP, 56 ERA-, 51 FIP-, 32.2 K%, 5.4 BB%)

This is Chris Sale, folks. You know him by now. You love him by now. He's facing a very weak offense in a game that the Braves will most likely need badly. Knowing what a fighter Sale is, it won't be a huge surprise if he goes out there and gets it done for Atlanta in this game. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his starts since June 1st, and it would be a really nasty surprise if that happened on Thursday.

RHP Julian Aguiar (6 GS, 27.2 IP, 111 ERA-, 145 FIP-, 12.6 K%, 8.4 BB%)

The good news for the Braves is that they'll be facing a pitcher on Thursday who doesn't look like one of the many secret bosses on this Cincinnati pitching staff. The bad news is that many of Aguiar's poor numbers seem to be tainted by his absolute nightmare performance on August 29 against the Oakland A's. In that outing, he pitched just four innings, allowing six runs and three home runs. Aside from that performance, however, the highly-rated prospect has been very solid and has a couple of starts under his belt where he lasted six innings.

In fact, he made it to the seventh inning in his last start on September 13 against the Twins. He pitched 6.1 innings and ended the night with three earned runs to his name. Get ready for a lot of breaking balls, as he'll bring sinkers and a changeup that can also make a lot of batters miss. While Aguiar wasn't completely dominant, this definitely feels like the kind of game where the Braves could end up confused while Chris Sale keeps them in the game. Atlanta could give this rookie a rude reception like the A's did, but I think we all know that's probably not going to happen, right?