Fantasy Football Defense (DST) Week 3 Rankings and Streamers

Another week and another solid 50% hit rate on predicting top-10 defenses, which is acceptable during these early weeks as we sort out the true value of these teams. The Steelers, Chargers, and Jets delivered from within our top tier; although, the Ravens and 49ers disappointed. We got strong showings from the Browns and Texans, who were just inside our top 10, but we also saw surprisingly good performances from the Bills, Packers, and Vikings against offenses we didn’t think they would have as much success against.

We should remember that we’re still incredibly early in the season and narratives will fluctuate drastically between weeks. A week ago today, we were discussing Isaiah Likely and Xavier Worthy as “league winners” and then they both had under 20 receiving yards in Week 2. The Bills were “lucky” to escape a terrible Cardinals team in Week 1, but then that same Cardinals team actually looked really good in Week 2, as did the Bills. The story is still being written here, so we want to take the clues we can get in the early weeks without fear of adapting as the narrative changes.

This is why I should make it clear that I have started to create my BOD rankings for the season using the formula listed below, but I don’t put too much stock in it until we have at least four weeks of data to go off of. In my previous years of experience, that is where I’ve started to see certain key stats like turnover rate or pressure rate begin to feel more realistic. So I’ll have my BOD rankings listed below, but we don’t need to focus too much on them for now.

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As a final reminder, what you’ll get each week in this article is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will the my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.

Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are. This week, we had five of the top 10 defenses correctly called, which is not great, but I’ll take a 50% hit rate early in the season as we figure out these teams.

2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)

WEEK 2: 5-5

SEASON-LONG: 10-10 (50%)

BOD Formula and Philosophy

If you’ve read my earlier articles then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup.

To do that, I’ve utilized the following formula and shoutout to Jake Grossman who puts together the Explosive Play Rate data that I’m using below. Follow him on Twitter here.

(PRESSURE RATE + PASSES DEFENDED RATE + (TURNOVER RATE X 2))

DIVIDED BY

(EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)

With all of that out of the way, how do these defenses rank for Week 3?

Tier 1 is smaller this week but that’s going to start happening as we start to identify the offenses we truly want to target.

Through two weeks, the Titans have allowed 17.5 points per game to opposing defenses. Tyjae Spears and DeAndre Hopkins are both banged up, and Will Levis has an Evil Josh Allen in his ear which pushes him to make some really poor decisions when he’s in trouble. Those poor decisions lead to fantasy goodness for defenses, and the Packers are currently first in the NFL in turnover rate and second in passes defended rate, so this could be a flame meets accelerant type of situation. I think the Green Bay pass rush will start to pick it up as well, and this is a pretty good spot for a solid defense.

I know the 49ers have let us down so far this season, but if you can’t count on them against a Rams offense without Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp then you’re just never going to play the 49ers defense. I don’t have many stats to use to back up the 49ers through two weeks other than the fact that they still rank fifth in turnover rate which is good news against an offense with few playmakers. I still believe in Matthew Stafford, but the Rams look to be in a bad situation that is getting worse by the day, and I think the 49ers will capitalize on that this weekend.

The Browns defense took a punch to the mouth against the Cowboys in Week 1, but we know this is a good unit. They have seven sacks in two games and rank sixth in passes defended rate. They have yet to force a turnover, but we know they’re around the ball so I have to think those will come, especially when playing against Daniel Jones. The Giants had a strong gameplan in Week 2 with Jones getting the ball out quickly and getting it to Malik Nabers often. Devin Singletary looked good on the ground, and if they can do that, they might not be a slam-dunk matchup. However, as it stands, they’ve given up the second-most points to opposing fantasy defense through two weeks, so they’re a matchup we are happy to see on the schedule.

The Seahawks defense has been really good so far, but their easy schedule in the first two weeks is why you drafted them. Still, they’re second in pressure rate, fifth in opponent’s scoring rate, and 12th in turnover rate. We know the Dolphins will be starting Skylar Thompson at quarterback, but we also know they’ll try to hide him like the Packers did with Malik Willis. The Dolphins have plenty of explosive weapons to make big plays on behind-the-line-of-scrimmage passes, so this play does scare me a bit, but I’m going to go ahead of attack Skylar Thompson here and we’ll see what happens.

The Bears scored 21 points in Week 1 against a bad Titans offense, then they put up six against a strong Texans offense. I think the truth of who the Bears are lies somewhere in the middle of that elite Week 1 showing and the “safe floor” showing in Week 2. They scored two defensive touchdowns in that first week, which catapulted the fantasy scoring, but they’re fifth in opponent scoring rate, fifth in pressure rate, ninth in turnover rate, and 24th in explosive play rate allowed. It’s a solid defense, but they will give up chunk plays, which is a bit concerning against Anthony Richardson who only looks for chunk plays. I also have concerns about the interior of the Bears defensive line after the Titans ran for 140 yards on 5.4 yards per carry in Week 1. Joe Mixon got hurt on Sunday night, but Jonathan Taylor might run all over this Bears defense that allowed 5.1 yards per carry to Tony Pollard. Then again, we might get bad Anthony Richardson again. Anything is possible here.

The plan was to put any defense that faces the Panthers in Tier 1, but the Panthers already pulled the plug on Bryce Young and will go with Andy Dalton in Week 3. While Dalton isn’t a game-breaker, he is a solid NFL quarterback who won’t make nearly the same mistakes that Young was making. He also won’t take nearly as many bad sacks. I still think the Panthers are an offense that we want to target, but they’re not as much of a slam dunk play as before, and this Raiders defense has been fine but not great through two weeks, so I’m going to leave them in Tier 2 for now.

I was big on the Texans defense coming into the year, but they ran into a nuclear effort from Anthony Richardson in Week 1. They rebounded with a strong showing against a banged-up Bears offense in Week 2, so I still have some trouble figuring out where this team will land. At this point, I’m going to trust my preseason evaluation of them. They’re currently fifth in passes defended rate, eighth in opponent’s scoring rate, ninth in pressure rate, and 10th in turnover rate. I think this is a good defense, and while the Sam Darnold resurgence is a nice story, Aaron Jones doesn’t look 100%, Jordan Addison will likely be out another week, and I still have some questions about this Vikings offense. If we find out Justin Jefferson will be at all limited due to his injury then I’d move the Texans up.

To me, the Bucs, Chargers, and Steelers are all the safe-floor plays of this tier. The Bucs are probably the worst defense of the three and their secondary is banged up, but they have a great defensive coordinator going up against a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix who seems in over his head. Through two games, the Broncos have given up the fifth-most points to fantasy defenses and that’s while trying to play ball control offense. I like the stability of the Bucs this week and think they also come with a hint of upside.

Meanwhile, the Chargers and Steelers are two defenses we’ve had a lot of success using so far this season, and they are also two offenses that haven’t impressed us. However, they are also two methodical, ball-control offenses, which means this game is going to feature tons of running plays and limited opportunities for defenses to register sacks or create turnovers. There also won’t be tons of points scored, which means both defenses feel like solid floor plays this week, but I don’t think the ceiling is overly high.

The Jets are the safe floor options at the top of Tier 3 and there’s an argument that they should be in Tier 2. We like the matchup against the Patriots, but through two games, New England has been successful with a strategy based on running the ball, bleeding the clock, and making things simple for Jacoby Brissett, which limits turnover opportunities. While that doesn’t lead to high-scoring games, it also doesn’t lead to many fantasy points scored by opposing defenses. The Jets are also dealing with injuries to C.J. Mosley and Jermaine Johnson, so I’m just not confident in them as a high-upside play this week; however, they have a very safe floor.

It’s so hard to count out the Bills defense when they keep making plays despite losing multiple defenders. Last year, they produced despite injuries to several key playmakers on that side of the ball and, through two games, they have shown up despite losing Matt Milano, Terrell Bernard, Taron Johnson, and seeing potential starting safety Mike Edwards unable to break into the starting lineup after a preseason injury. On paper, it should be a solid matchup for the Bills with the way they’ve played, but at some point, these injuries will be too hard to overcome, right? Maybe that’s just the cynical Bills fan in me talking.

The Commanders offense is an interesting one to figure out. On the one hand, they’re not good. On the other hand, Jayden Daniels has not been making many bonehead decisions early in his career, which means the Commanders are giving up the 26th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses at just 4.0 points per game. Now, the Bucs and Giants defenses aren’t elite, but neither are the Bengals. The Bengals are fifth in explosive play rate allowed and eighth in turnover rate, which we like to see, but they’re 18th in pressure rate, and 22nd in opponent scoring rate, so there are some holes here. I think they can give you 5-7 points in fantasy leagues, and that’s not a bad floor play.

The Vikings are a good defense. Brian Flores is a really good coordinator. I just really don’t like this matchup. If we find out that Joe Mixon can’t go then I might move Minnesota up to Tier 2, but all indications are that he’s going to play, and I think this Texans team is going to be the toughest offense Minnesota has faced so far this season. That gives me some pause in moving them higher in the rankings.

The Bears offense has not looked good so far this year, and both Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze played Week 2 at less than 100%. There is talent on this Bears offense, but they seem like an offense we’d want to attack for now. The bigger concern is that this Colts defense has not been particularly good either. They rank 23rd in opponent scoring rate, and 25th in turnover rate, and they have allowed 474 rushing yards in two games. Yes, that’s in just two games. This run defense is a major liability, and even though the pass rush has been good, that run defense makes me a little concerned about ranking the Colts too high right now because the Bears, if they’re smart, will simply lean on D’Andre Swift to take pressure off of Caleb Williams.

The Titans could be higher because they’re playing against a backup quarterback, but as we saw last week, the Packers can hide Malik Willis by successfully running the ball and using the short passing game. The Packers have plenty of playmakers on offense, so even though we love attacking Willis, there is some risk here that guys like Christian Watson, Jaylen Reed, and Josh Jacobs are going to make big plays and hurt the Titans. When you add to that the likelihood that the Titans offense puts the defense in bad positions with some turnovers, it makes them a much riskier play in Week 3.

The Cowboys, Chiefs, and Ravens units are usually defenses we love to play and can trust in any matchup and while I don’t think they’re doing to have awful weeks, I just don’t love the matchups enough to have them higher, so they land down in Tier 4 where you can play them if you’re in a bind, but I’d rather not.