Why Trump's false statements about election fraud could cost the Republicans their place in the House of Representatives

CNN
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Donald Trump's fixation on electoral fraud, which does not exist in any significant form, could drive the country into a government shutdown – and possibly even endanger the Republican majority in the House of Representatives.

In yet another demonstration of the failure of governing, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson failed on Wednesday in his attempt to push through a six-month extension of government funding, tied to a measure designed to please Trump and make it harder for Americans to vote.

The Republican candidate's calls for a law targeting noncitizen voting, which is already illegal, pushed Johnson into a corner from which there is no escape, raising the possibility of a crisis in Washington in the run-up to Election Day that could backfire on Republicans.

This move has no chance of producing new legislation because the Democrats, who control the Senate, are opposed to it. And Johnson could not even get 16 of his own representatives to vote for it for a variety of reasons – including the incompatible demands of some arch-conservatives for massive budget cuts, which also have no chance of becoming law due to power-sharing in Washington.

Johnson now appears to have no choice but to negotiate a short-term funding measure with Senate Democrats. But given the tiny Republican majority in the House and Trump's looming presence, any move the speaker makes will be risky – especially if he hopes to keep his job if Republicans manage to hold on to the House majority in November.

Trump appears to be preparing Republicans for an intra-party power struggle that could end in disaster in November.

The history of government shutdowns suggests that the party that holds the majority in the House of Representatives – and which is initially responsible for the state's coffers – usually pays the highest political price. And if the speaker can't meet the Oct. 1 deadline to fund federal budgets, the government could be partially shut down.

The former president does not usually ask Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for advice. But the Kentucky veteran warned on Tuesday: “The only thing we cannot tolerate is a government shutdown. It would be politically more than stupid if we did that just before the election, because we would certainly be blamed.”

Ironically, Trump was in the state on Wednesday where his stance could do the most political damage to House Republicans, holding a major rally in New York even though he is part of a tiny minority who believe he can save his birth state in November.

More importantly, New York is also hosting several highly contested House elections that produced a Democratic outcome in the 2022 midterm elections and paved the way for the Republicans' narrow majority. A political crisis over a shutdown that angers voters would therefore risk sweeping some of the country's most vulnerable Republicans from their seats.

One of the most threatened Republican lawmakers, Rep. Mike Lawler of the state's 17th Congressional District, predicted on “The Source with Kaitlan Collins” on Wednesday that the drama would end even without a shutdown and that a funding bill would be passed without including the ballot measure demanded by Trump.

“The reality is we are not going to shut down the government 45 days before the election,” said Lawler, who supports the bill.

Another vulnerable New York Republican, Rep. Marc Molinaro, who drew praise at Trump's rally in Uniondale, voted for Wednesday's package – but signaled he did not support pushing the country to the brink to make a political point. “We have to support continuity of government,” Molinaro told reporters.

The voting bill, which the House of Representatives passed earlier this year in a single vote, would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship to vote. Critics warn that such a law could disenfranchise citizens without such documents and say the bill is a solution to a problem that doesn't exist.

Johnson has happily indulged Trump's claims of voter fraud – both after the 2020 election and during this election cycle. But his desire to please the former president and his base is leading him into a deep governing crisis. The Louisiana Republican has also provided no evidence to support his claims that hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants could vote in November.

It's not yet clear how far the ex-president will push this issue — since the voter registration measure is doomed to fail. One possible interpretation of Johnson's decision to raise the issue on Wednesday is that he wanted to show his party, and even the ex-president himself, that the fight is losing.

“And now we're going to look at the script again, draft a new script and come to a solution,” the spokesman told reporters, as some members of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives grew frustrated at the lack of clarity on how to proceed.

But Johnson lacks an obvious move that could get him out of his jam.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene — a Georgia Republican who is an ardent Trump supporter and a constant nuisance to Johnson — voted “present” on Wednesday. But she would not say whether she supports a government shutdown. Instead, she called the speaker's strategy a “complete failure,” adding, “We weren't here all of August and we could have finished our 12 individual appropriations bills.”

The showdown on Capitol Hill is far from the first time that Trump's personal political goals have threatened to harm his party. For example, his support of a number of weak candidates in the 2022 midterm elections — largely because they supported his false claims of voter fraud — appeared to be a factor in the failure of an expected red wave. And the ex-president's antics boosted Senate candidates who lost in swing states, costing the party control of the Senate.

Trump's pressure on Johnson also helps explain why the narrow Republican majority in the House is often pushed into extreme situations and confrontations it cannot win, but which has resulted in this Congress being one of the least productive in modern history. Johnson, who succeeded former speaker Kevin McCarthy last year, has often found governing impossible.

The willingness of Republican leaders to expose Trump's false claims of voter fraud is also an ominous omen ahead of an election that the ex-president is already suggesting will not be free and fair. As in 2020, the Republican nominee appears to be laying the groundwork for claims that he was cheated out of his victory should he lose to Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee.

On Wednesday, before the House vote, the former president wrote on his social network Truth: “Democrats are registering TEN THOUSANDS of illegal voters right now – they will vote in the 2024 presidential election and they should not be allowed to do so.” There are no facts to support this claim. But Trump warned: “If Republicans do not pass the SAVE Act and every bit of it, they should not agree to a continuation resolution in any way.”

Trump's decision to hold a rally in New York has confused many strategists, as the state is not a hotly contested election in November. But the former president enjoys appearing in his home state — and has repeatedly feted his huge crowds at Nassau Coliseum on Long Island. And with Trump receiving blanket coverage in conservative media and planning to tour swing states in the coming days, he probably didn't lose much by mobilizing supporters in his home state.

At least he had fun repeatedly criticizing Harris for her economic and immigration policies, making fun of President Joe Biden's age, denying the existence of climate change and portraying New York as a city where violent crime is under control.

“We're going to win New York,” Trump roared, claiming he was the only Republican who could put the Empire State on the map on a day when the Teamsters Union refused to endorse a presidential bid after supporting Democratic candidates for the past few decades. It was a blow to Harris that reflected Trump's success in transforming the once business-focused Republicans into a party now able to court working-class voters.

“It’s nice to see you again,” the former president, who now spends most of his time in Florida, said to his audience as he left the stage to the sound of Puccini’s aria “Nessun dorma.”