Analysis: The battle for weapons stagnates in 2024 [Member Exclusive]

The presidential campaign debate over gun policy and its emphasis (or lack thereof) is not expected to change from this point until November.

In the past month, we have seen a high-profile mass murder and a second assassination attempt on Donald Trump, and Kamala Harris gave an extensive interview on gun policy. Yet neither candidate has moved on the issue of guns, and Americans have not put the issue on their priority list.

The race has stalled and, barring extreme weather events, will likely remain at the same level on the arms issue.

The reason for this is a seeming lack of interest among voters. All polls on guns since the Apalachee High School shooting in Winder, Georgia, and the debate have confirmed this. Voters in the most recent ABC News and Ipsos poll trusted Harris more than Trump on guns, while voters in the most recent Fox News poll preferred Trump. But both polls showed that Americans view guns as a secondary issue at best.

This remained the case in several other polls after the debate. A survey by Yahoo News and YouGov found that only five percent considered guns to be their most important issue, putting it sixth out of nine issues. Another poll by the Angus Reid Institute found that 19 percent said guns were the issue that mattered most to them, also putting it sixth out of 11 issues.

And then there are the candidates themselves. They have shown no signs of wanting to change their attitude towards weapons.

Another potential assassin threatened Trump. Fortunately, this assassination attempt did not go as far as the last one. But it was another reason for him to change his mind on guns, which he has not done.

While there was reason to believe Trump might be more moderate on gun control after his own shooting, and there is still reason to believe the assassination attempts could spur a push in that direction, he has stuck to his previous approach, which now consists mainly of downplaying policy promises on gun rights and emphasizing that he doubts gun owners' willingness to vote. But he has also repeatedly attacked Harris for her past support for a mandatory buyback of AR-15s and similar firearms.

Harris, for her part, has also remained true to her positions. At least those she represented after taking over the top position of the Democrats. She now advocates for universal background checks, “red flag” laws and a ban on the sale of “assault weapons.”

To get there, she had to walk back her 2019 support for the mandatory gun buyback that Trump has so emphasized. She also refused to talk about her past support for the handgun ban that the Supreme Court overturned in the 2008 Heller decision and her certification of the microstamping requirement for handguns when she was California's attorney general. She also has yet to personally address her recently resurfaced 2007 comments warning law-abiding gun owners in San Francisco that she would send police officers to their homes to check that they were storing their guns securely, even though a campaign spokesman told Fox News that a federal court had upheld the law she was discussing.

Perhaps the most telling thing about her relatively lengthy discussion on gun policy with the National Association of Black Journalists was what she didn't say. Despite being asked specifically about handguns and repeatedly being pressed by NPR's Tonya Mosley for specific policy details, she didn't return to her previous, even more left-wing positions on handguns. Instead, she stuck to her call for an assault weapons ban and universal background checks before digressing into mental health funding and community violence prevention programs.

However, one part of her statement was telling. She began her answer on guns with the same tactic she has used every time she has discussed the topic since the debate: She emphasized that she and her running mate are gun owners. She even used that line again at a fundraiser with Oprah, going so far as to say that anyone who breaks into her house will be shot before returning to the same three gun laws she has always supported.

Trump has settled on a strategy of shaming gun owners into voting, telling them Harris will take away their guns, and Harris has decided to tell anyone who will listen that she's a gun owner who just wants universal background checks, red-flag laws, and an assault weapons ban. Meanwhile, voters by and large seem more interested in stimulating the economy, reducing inflation, and protecting democracy, to name a few.

Their attention may turn back to the issue of guns in the coming weeks, but since the events we just witnessed have had no impact, it would likely take a big story to move candidates and voters alike.

However, that doesn't mean that guns don't play a role in the election. They could even be decisive.

Polls suggest the 2024 election will likely be as close as the last two elections. Harris gained a bit in the polls after the debate, but on average, Trump is only a few percentage points behind her, and even closer in swing states. Gun policy may not be a high priority for the majority of voters, but the vast majority of voters still consider it an important issue overall.

In addition, despite Trump's recent stance, gun owners tend to vote very frequently on gun issues, so gun control measures tend to perform significantly worse in polls when they are put directly to voters in referendums.