Top tips from the CFB betting splits for Friday, September 20

Tonight we have three Friday Night Lights games to choose from, so let's examine where the smart money is heading using our VSiN college football betting splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

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Stanford (1-1) swept Cal Poly 41-7 but failed to score as a 35-point home favorite. Meanwhile, Syracuse (2-0) narrowly defeated Georgia Tech 31-28 and is the 3-point home favorite. That line was listed at the beginning with Syracuse as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public is expecting an easy win and cover for the Orange at home. However, despite making up 75% of the spread bets, Syracuse has fallen from -9.5 to -8.5. Why would the bookies lower the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they're already crushing Syracuse? Because the pro money is on Stanford plus the points, which sparked a strong reverse line move in favor of the away team. Stanford only receives 25% of the spread bets on a primetime game with a lot of betting on ESPN, offering notable contrarian value. Both teams are similar on offense, with Stanford scoring 68 points in two games while Syracuse scored 69. The Cardinal have been better on defense, allowing 41 points to Syracuse's 50. Stanford ranks 10th nationally in rushing defense. Wiseguys also appears to be losing, with the total dropping from 58 to 56.5 despite 55% of bets being on the over.

Illinois (3-0, ranked 24th) just beat Central Michigan 30-9 but failed to impress as a 21.5-point home favorite. Likewise, Nebraska (3-0, ranked 22nd) just beat Northern Iowa 34-3 and covered as a 30.5-point home favorite. This line opened with Nebraska as a 9-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn't know whether to take the points or bet on them. However, despite this 50/50 betting split, Nebraska has fallen from -9 to -7.5. In a vacuum, a line in even betting shouldn't move at all because theoretically bookmakers have no reason to adjust the number. So based on this 50/50 line movement, we can conclude that the pro money is on Illinois plus the points. Illinois is valuable as a conference underdog because the built-in familiarity and rivalry levels the playing field and benefits the team that gets points. The Fighting Illini have correlative betting value as a one-plus touchdown underdog in a low-score total game (42.5), with the lower number of expected points making it harder for the favorite to reach the number. Pros have also won the under, lowering the point total from 43.5 to 42.5. The under accounts for just 40% of bets but 64% of dollars, a notable, sharply contrarian betting split along the lines of “low bets, higher dollars.”

San Jose State (3-0) just easily outscored Kennesaw State, 31-10, to become the favorite by 16.5 points. Washington State (3-0) beat Washington, 24-19, to win comfortably as a 6-point underdog. This line opened with Washington State as a 14-point favorite. The public is expecting an easy Cougars win, and 72% of spread bets are rushing to the counter to put the points on Washington State. Despite this lopsided support, however, we've seen Washington State drop from -14 to -13. This suggests a sharp reverse line move for San Jose State, as the line is moving in their direction despite them being the very unpopular team. The Spartans are receiving just 28% of spread bets in a game that is heavily bet on late at night, offering notable “bet against the public” value. San Jose State will rely on its defense to keep this game close, allowing just 41 points in three games while Washington State has given up 65. The Spartans have corresponding betting value as underdogs with nearly two touchdowns in a relatively low point total game (55), with the lower number of expected points making it harder for the favorite to cover. Washington State could also be in a “disappointment” situation after its big upset win over in-state rival Washington. The point total started at 55.5 and rose as high as 57.5 throughout the week before falling back to 55 where it stands now. The under only accounts for 40% of bets, but 45% of wagers.