Series preview: Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers

With every single game for the Mariners essentially a playoff game from now on, there's no way they can afford any more sloppy mistakes on the field. An overtime win on Wednesday would have put them just one game back in the wild card race thanks to the Twins' continued weakness; instead, they're two games back, right where they were at the start of the week. The division is all but out of reach at five games even if Seattle beats the Astros in Houston next week, but they'll likely have to beat to stay in the wild card race. All in all: just win. Just win and let everything else go as it comes.

The final three series of the season are against division rivals, starting with this six-game road trip to Texas. The M's got the better of those Rangers last weekend and need to do the same this weekend. Everything said about Texas last week holds true this week: They're stuck in a strange no-man's land just a year after winning the World Series, thanks to a serious offensive regression and a pitching staff that didn't get healthy in time.

From an earlier series preview:

Nearly every core member of the Rangers' lineup has struggled in one way or another this year. Marcus Semien is slogging through his worst season since the pandemic-shortened 2020 season; Corey Seager continues to battle persistent injuries and his wRC+ is down 30 points from last year; Evan Carter has been miserable in the field and a back injury ended his season after just 45 games; and Adolis García's hitting power has evaporated despite solid peripherals and his wRC+ is down nearly 40 points. There are a few positive signs: Although Wyatt Langford didn't live up to overwhelming expectations early in the season, he put together a solid rookie season and performed better as the season went on; and Josh Smith has continued his breakout season as a super-utility player. However, if the lineup's job was to carry the team until their pitchers were healthy again, they have failed miserably in that goal.

Probable pitchers

Updated Stuff+ explainer video

From an earlier series preview:

30.1 innings in two years is almost the worst case scenario for the deal that Texas Rangers deGrom signed a contract before the 2023 season, but now he's finally set to return. As unfortunate as it is for the Mariners, they'll face the best healthy starting pitcher of the last decade on Friday night. In four rehab appearances, he's looked his usual self, destroying weak minor leaguers with efficiency. Expect temperatures to top 90 degrees and plenty of nasty sliders.

In his first start of the season last weekend, deGrom held the Mariners scoreless for 3.2 innings, allowing four hits and striking out four. He threw 61 pitches in that game, and his pitch count should increase to around 80 this time around.

From an earlier series preview:

The three-time Cy Young winner returns from the injured list to threaten the Mariners, posing another fearsome challenge for an M's team that hasn't exactly been wild. Mad Max has mellowed as the 39-year-old has battled injuries and the lowest average velocity of his career, but he's been a passable starter whenever he's stepped on the mound.

The Mariners scored two runs in Scherzer's start last weekend. He lasted four innings and threw 73 pitches, allowing five hits and two walks and only two strikeouts.

From an earlier series preview:

Andrew Heaney's success has always been tied to his ability to keep the ball in the yard. He has always posted excellent strikeout rates and has mastered his three-pitch repertoire so well that he can be very effective when he doesn't allow a ton of hard contact. That blueprint is obsolete once the balls fly over the fences. In 2022, he took a pretty significant step forward with the Dodgers and the hope was that his newfound ability to strike out more than a third of the batters he faced would give him much higher potential. That wasn't the case when he joined the Rangers last year; his strikeout rate dropped back to his career average and his walk rate rose three points, making matters worse.

The M's blindsided Heaney with three runs in the first inning last Sunday and then forced him to toil for five innings. This year, he has now allowed 10 runs in 15.2 innings against Seattle.

The big picture:

The Tigers continued their last-minute rise up the standings with a sweep of the Royals this week. After the Twins suffered back-to-back walk-off losses to the Guardians, Detroit and Minnesota are tied in the standings heading into this weekend. In the AL West, the Astros began their four-game series against the Angels with a late-game win yesterday. Interests in cheering/watching the scoreboard this weekend:

• Red Sox beat Twins

• Orioles beat Tigers
• Giants over Royals
• Angels over Astros