Michigan Football Scouting Report, Prediction Against USC in Big Ten Debut

Free Press sportswriter Tony Garcia analyzes Michigan football's 2024 Big Ten opener and Week 4 game against No. 12 Southern Cal on Saturday in Ann Arbor:

Short info

Comparison: No. 17 Michigan (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten) vs. No. 12 USC (2-0, 0-0).

Start: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.; Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor.

Television/Radio: CBS; WXYT-FM (97.1), WTKA-AM (1050).

Line: Trojan with 5½.

Michigan edge rusher Josaiah Stewart (0) tackles Fresno State running back Malik Sherrod (2) during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, August 31, 2024.

Availability report

Michigan: From: S. Rod Moore. Questionable: TE Colston Loveland (upper body). Probably: Quarterback Jack Tuttle.

USC: Questionable: LB Mason Cobb, TE Walter Matthews.

Scouting report

When Michigan has the ball: The Wolverines have opted to make a significant change, benching quarterback Davis Warren in favor of Alex Orji after the senior lost the ball six times in the team's first three games. Unless he gets injured, this game will be all Orji's, which will change the shape of UM's offense. The 6-foot-3, 235-pound junior has rushed 31 times for 181 yards and three touchdowns in his career and attempted just seven passes (four times for 20 yards with two touchdowns); although head coach Sherrone Moore insists he can throw, his No. 1 job will be avoiding turnovers.

Michigan quarterback Alex Orji (10) hands the ball off to Michigan running back Kalel Mullings (20) during the first half against Fresno State at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024.

The offense could look different this week, with possible sets with multiple running backs, multiple tight ends, H-backs or a combination of all of those. In particular, look for Michigan to establish the running game with Kalel Mullings, who averages 7.5 yards per carry, and Donovan Edwards. UM could be in trouble offensively if star tight end Colston Loveland is out. He leads all Wolverines in receptions (19) and receiving yards (187), but had to leave last week's game due to injury. Michigan will have to contend with a USC defense that allowed just 10 points per game and has made notable strides in tackling — one reason the Trojans rank 100 spots higher overall after the coordinator switch from Alex Grinch to D'Anton Lynn. Anthony Lucas is the “spoiler” Moore has talked about multiple times, but Bear Alexander or linebacker Eric Gentry shouldn't be underestimated either.

“To be balanced, we have to own it,” Moore said earlier this week. “I think the running game has to set up the passing game, the plays and all those things for us to be successful.”

When USC has the ball: Although USC had to face LSU in Week 1, the Trojans still boast one of the most potent offenses in the country statistically. USC ranks 16th in total offense (495.5 yards per game) and 27th in scoring offense (37.5 points per game) despite losing QB Caleb Williams, a former Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 pick in April's NFL draft out of downtown Detroit.

USC loves to spread the ball around. There are 12 different Trojans with multiple pass catches, led by tight end Lake McRee with nine catches for 137 yards, but the most dangerous talent is wide receiver Zachariah Branch. In addition to running the sophomore on go routes, the Trojans like to line him up in the slot and let him run free across formations, something head coach Lincoln Riley does exceptionally well. The UM defense, which ranks 54th in total defense (304.3 yards per game) and 57th in scoring (19.7 points per game), has emphasized its return to the “four pillars” of defense, with a particular focus on effort and angles when tackling and pre-snap communication to make sure everyone is properly aligned.

“Lincoln Riley has been doing this for a long time,” said LaMar Morgan, Michigan's defensive backs coach. “You always see him on the sideline, he has the shortest lineup, but he can do a lot of variations. I think what he does really well is get the ball in the hands of his playmakers. He knows he sees every coverage you do. He knows what he needs to get to. If you change it up, he'll get back to it. He runs replays. I just think they do a really good job of distributing the ball.”

Know the enemy

Miller time: The man responsible for distributing the ball is quarterback Miller Moss. The 6-foot-1, 200-pound junior has impressed early in his career, completing 48 of 66 passes (72.7%) for 557 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions this season. The advanced numbers are just as impressive. According to Pro Football Focus, Moss's 90.8 passing yards puts him at No. 5 among quarterbacks with at least 25 attempts in the nation, and both of his touchdowns have come while being blitzed. Moss has completed 61.5% of his passes when the defense sends an extra man and is an impressive 10 of 14 when under pressure.

“He's one of the best quarterbacks in the country,” Morgan said Wednesday. “Seriously. I think when you look at his video, you see what he does, the placement — he's on the back foot when he gets hit and the ball is right there. I just think anyone who plays against him this year is going to see a quarterback that's ready for his challenge. (He) was prepared. I think he's one of the best players in their offense, without a doubt.”

Not just a runner: Running back Woody Marks, a transfer from Mississippi State, has helped crack the USC offense. Not only is he a big body who runs behind his pads and drops forward — he had nearly 1,900 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns in four seasons with the Bulldogs — but his passing skills are crucial. Marks has caught at least one pass in an absurd 47 consecutive games and has 220 receptions for 1,271 yards (both would be all-time running back records at Michigan) and five receiving touchdowns over his career. UM defensive coordinator Wink Martindale likes to play a lot of man coverage, which could mean linebackers Ernest Hausmann or Jaishawn Barham will have to prove they can hold their own in pass coverage.

Riley's Rules: Since 2018, three of the seven Heisman winners have led Riley's offenses as quarterbacks: Baker Mayfield (2018) and Kyler Murray (2019) at Oklahoma and Williams (2022) at USC. Much like Texas offensive guru Steve Sarkisian, Riley is known for his offenses being able to find a weakness and exploit it. This year, the goal was to spread the defense wide and get individual players to make plays in space.

Tony Garcia's two cents

Keep away: What's the best way to stop such a powerful offense? By keeping them on the sidelines. The Wolverines have been a ball-control offense during their 2021-23 winning streak, and they've done a good job of keeping the ball away from opponents and their offenses on the sidelines. Michigan's time of possession is actually almost identical — UM had the ball 32:14 per game last year and is 32:21 this year — but the turnovers have been brutal. If Michigan can reduce those, then the Wolverines have the script they want.

Third attempts: One of the keys to controlling the ball is success on third down, and Michigan has not performed to its usual standard. The Wolverines are No. 39 in third down conversion, moving the stick on 16 of 35 attempts (45.7%), while USC is No. 35 in the nation, converting 9 of 19 opportunities (47.4%). The biggest difference is on defense. Michigan ranks 100th nationally in getting off the field on third down (with a conversion rate of 41.2%), while USC is No. 31 (conversion rate of 29.2%).

Michigan Football Scouting Report, Prediction Against USC in Big Ten Debut

Short info

Availability report

Scouting report

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Michigan Football Scouting Report, Prediction Against USC in Big Ten Debut

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