How a Republican fight to change Nebraska's electoral process could affect the election

The change, which would no longer allocate electoral votes based on congressional districts but instead use a more traditional winner-take-all system, would likely give former President Donald Trump an additional electoral vote rather than giving it to Vice President Kamala Harris.

Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, which includes Omaha, is leaning toward Harris, and a new push for a winner-take-all system would erode the support she has there.

This would also irrefutably improve Trump's chances of getting back into the White House. It could prevent Harris from getting 270 electoral votes even if she can win the battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In this scenario, Trump could still pull off a tie if he wins the slightly Republican-leaning states of Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona and also grabs Nevada.

In the event of a tie, the newly elected representative would choose the president, while the Senate would choose the vice president. The Republicans are considered the favorites in the Senate, while the situation in the House of Representatives is more unclear.

Trump and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) have been lobbying Nebraska state senators to change the system, and the state's Republicans have the power to do so with a two-thirds majority in the state legislature. However, all 33 Republican senators would have to vote yes to pass the system change.

At least one has indicated he will not. Recently converted Republican state Sen. Mike McDonnell said this week that he would vote no. McDonnell is a candidate for mayor of Omaha, and a yes vote from him would likely provoke opposition to him because the district recognizes that he has an individual influence on the presidential election. There was a financial advantage to political campaigns visiting the district, a phenomenon that would likely disappear if the state switched to a winner-take-all approach.

“The people of the 2nd District are eager to vote, and they are insulted that the governor, senators and out-of-state stakeholders are taking away their opportunity to make their voices heard,” said Democratic Senator John Cavanaugh. “Any politician who takes away their ability to make their voices heard will feel the consequences at the ballot box.”

A recent poll showed Harris leading in the 2nd District by 5 points, while Trump leads statewide by 17 points. Trump lost the district by about 6 points in 2020 and won it by 2 points in 2016.

Nebraska's Republican Secretary of State Bob Evnen believes the state could complete the change the day before Election Day, his spokeswoman told the WashingtonPost.

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The only other state that allocates its electoral votes according to congressional districts is Maine, which, apart from one Republican-leaning district, is predominantly dominated by Democrats.

RealClearPolitics's The latest poll average has Harris nearly 2 points ahead of Trump nationwide.