NC State at No. 21 Clemson: Wills preview and prediction

CLEMSON – When it comes to big games, there is none bigger than Saturday’s ACC opener between No. 21 Clemson and NC State.

“This is a big game for both teams as we enter the conference,” Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney said. “That's what it's really about right now. It's about the conference. We have eight conference games in a row.”

“Every week is a huge opportunity, starting with this one.”

NC State at No. 21 Clemson

Start: Saturday, noon

Location: Memorial Stadium, Clemson

TV: ABC

Spread: Cleveland -19

Over/Under: 44.5

Series: Clemson leads the series 60-30-1

WHAT’S AT STAKE?

It's the ACC opener for both teams. Not only will a win get them off to a strong start in conference play, but they'll also have the head-to-head tiebreaker if they're tied at the end of the season. In the last 71 seasons as an ACC member, Clemson has a 44-26-1 record in conference openers. The Tigers have won eight of their last nine ACC openers. Clemson's eight-year winning streak in conference openers from 2015-2022 was Clemson's longest such streak in school history. Head coach Dabo Swinney has a 10-5 record in ACC openers at Clemson, with four of the five losses coming on the road.

KEY GAME

How will freshman quarterback CJ Bailey handle his first start on the road against a Clemson defense known for overwhelming freshman quarterbacks in the past in Death Valley? Bailey came in for starter Grayson McCall late in the second quarter against La. Tech after McCall suffered a shoulder and Achilles injury. The true freshman performed well as a replacement, completing 13 of 20 passes for 156 yards. He also ran for 27 yards on four carries and scored a touchdown. He did, however, throw one interception. The key in this game is whether the Clemson defense can embarrass the freshman and shake his confidence. Look for defensive coordinator Wes Goodwin to employ some sort of blitz throughout the game.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Last year, Clemson running back Phil Mafah ran for 84 yards on 16 carries and scored two touchdowns, most of them in the second half as the Tigers tried to catch up in Raleigh. Clemson will likely continue to let Mafah run the football in this game. If the Tigers can establish Mafah and the running game, it will open up more space down the field as the Pack will have to come out of their 3-3-5 shell and start stopping the running game. Unlike in recent years, Clemson has the playmakers to get things going from the front when the Wolfpack tries to stop the running game.

NC State wide receiver Kevin Concepcion is one of the best playmakers in the ACC. Last year, they only needed two plays from the dynamic receiver to beat the Tigers. He had a 54-yard reverse to set up the first touchdown of the game, and then he caught an easy slant pass and turned it into a 72-yard touchdown receiver that turned out to be the game-winning touchdown. This year, Concepcion has 22 receptions for 199 yards and three touchdowns in three games. How will the Tigers defend him? Will they leave him alone in one-on-one situations and trust their defensive backs, or will they double-team him and try to limit his performance? It should be interesting to see how this matchup plays out.

THIS AND THAT

Clemson has won nine straight games against NC State at Memorial Stadium since a 26-20 victory in 2004. In the Tigers' nine straight wins in Death Valley, their average margin of victory over the Wolfpack was 15.2 points.

FINAL ANALYSIS

Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik struggled in this game last season. He completed 33 of 50 passes for 263 yards and two interceptions. At times he was undecided about whether to run or throw, and as a result the offense struggled. Against App State on Sept. 7, he completed 24 of 26 passes for 378 yards and five touchdowns. He also scored two touchdowns. Can he perform at his best for the second week in a row? This game will be a good test to see how far Klubnik has come in his development as a college quarterback and will likely determine the outcome of the game.

FORECAST

Clemson 34, NC State 13