Georgia Tech vs. Louisville score prediction by an expert football model

The ACC rivals face off in a battle of conference title contenders this weekend when No. 19 Louisville returns to the field on Saturday to face Georgia Tech during Week 4 of college football.

Georgia Tech was briefly ranked before a 7-point loss at Syracuse two weeks ago, but rebounded with a win over VMI and is in the top 50 nationally in passing and yardage. It hopes to avoid slipping to the No. 1-2 spots against ACC competition this season.

Louisville returns from its off week sporting a potent passing attack that ranks 13th nationally and 3rd in the FBS with an average of 55.5 points per game, but the schedule gets more challenging starting with this week's ACC opener.

What do the experts think about the duel?

Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Georgia Tech and Louisville compare in this Week 4 college football game.

The simulations currently favor the home team in this game, but only by a narrow margin.

SP+ predicts Louisville to defeat Georgia Tech by a projected score of 35-23 and win the game by a projected 12.9 points.

The model gives the Cardinals a 79 percent chance of a clear victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency in college football” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a winning percentage of 52.4.

According to the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Louisville is a 10.5-point favorite against Georgia Tech, with the total score for the game set at 57.5.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for a straight-up win for Louisville at -345 and for Georgia Tech at +270.

When using this projection to bet on the game, here are some things to consider…

Other analysis models also assume that the Cardinals will successfully complete their tasks at home.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to select the winners.

Louisville is predicted to win in 78.4 percent of updated computer simulations.

This leaves Georgia Tech as the likely winner in the remaining 21.6 percent of simulations.

The model projects that Louisville will score 12 points better than Georgia Tech on the same field, which is also enough to make up the difference.

Louisville ranks second among ACC teams with a 26.8 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoffs and winning 8.6 games this season, according to FPI metrics.

This model predicts that Georgia Tech will win 6.4 games and has a 1.9 percent chance of making the playoffs.

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time
TV: ESPN2 Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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