Predicting the top three players in the race for MLB Rookie of the Year in AL, NL

The leaves are starting to change color, the wild card races are in full swing, and October baseball is just around the corner. With just a week and a half to go until the MLB regular season, much is still uncertain. Unlike the World Series contenders, which seem to be wide open, the candidates for the MLB awards have separated themselves from the crowd. In both leagues, at least one player has emerged as the favorite for the MVP and Cy Young awards.

However, the race for the Rookie of the Year award, which was considered a foregone conclusion just a few months ago, has gained momentum.

In the AL, New York Yankees catcher Austin Wells emerged as a presence behind the plate in both directions — and an underdog to take home the title. His teammate, the even-tempered Luis Gil, pitched steadily in the second half to remain a contender. And early favorite, Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser, remains a factor, although his hitting slowed down a bit in the second half.

And then there's the NL. Paul Skenes, the Pittsburgh Pirates' flame-throwing star who seems to make history every time he steps on the rubber, leads the three-way race for Rookie of the Year. But power-speed outfielders Jackson Merrill of the San Diego Padres and Jackson Chourio of the Milwaukee Brewers are hot on Skenes' heels.

All this is to say that the Rookie of the Year races will be difficult to predict. But where would be the fun in not are you trying to predict them?

So let's take on the enviable task of predicting the top three players for the American League Rookie of the Year title and the not-so-enviable task of doing the same for the National League.

1. Paul Skenes (SP, Pirates)

Can we just give Skenes and Jackson Merrill an award and call it a day? If you were asked a few months ago who the NL king was, Skenes would have been the obvious choice. But Merrill's emergence, and to some extent Chourio's, has made this race significantly tighter. Yes, voting history favors either Merrill or Chourio over Skenes. Even the current odds favor Merrill over the Pirates' ace.

But it is difficult not to present Skenes with this award.

The 6-foot-10 right-hander boasts a fastball with triple-digit velocity, a sinker-splitter hybrid called the “splinker” and three different breakers – a sweeper, a slider and a curveball. Skenes even has a changeup in his arsenal. Keeping track of all the pitches he throws is almost as hard as hitting them. Just ask opposing MLB hitters, who had just a .204 batting average against him on Friday. Skenes' splinker is also hands down one of the best and most unhittable pitches in the game.

Among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, Skenes' K/BB percentage ranks third in MLB, while his ERA of 2.07 ranks second in the league. And here's the kicker: Skenes' adjusted ERA of 203 would rank among the top 100 single-season numbers. from every pitcher These go back to 1884, if he were to qualify in terms of innings.

The fact that Skenes — who was called up in May — has only pitched 126 innings could count against him, but it shouldn't. This isn't just one of the best pitching seasons we've ever seen from a rookie. It's not just one of the best pitching seasons this year. It's literally one of the best seasons by a pitcher we've ever seen. Give him the award.

2. Jackson Merrill (fullback, Padres)

Seriously, can we just give Skenes and Merrill an award and call it a day?? If any, Merrill's outstanding season proves that there should be a separate ROY award for pitchers and hitters. But that's another argument for another day.

The case for Merrill being ROY is simple. The 21-year-old was the best hitter in the second half of a playoff contender Padres that includes six-time All-Star Manny Machado, two-time All-Star Fernando Tatis Jr. and two-time batting champ Luis Arraez. But that's not all. Since the All-Star break, Merrill ranks in the top 10 in all of MLB in batting average, OPS, barrel rate and wRC+. Simply put, we're talking about one of the best hitters in baseball through a half-season. And it's not like Merrill's overall slash line of .292/.323/.504 is anything to be ashamed of.

In addition, Merrill, a natural shortstop, positively impacts the game at a premium position in center field, as he ranks 12th among all players at the position in outs above average.

Voters have favored outfielders lately, so there's a good chance Merrill wins this award. But it wouldn't be a shame to come in second behind one of the best pitching seasons we've ever seen from a rookie.

3. Jackson Chourio (OF, Brewers)

Chourio is the underdog to take home the NL ROY after rebounding from a dismal first half in which he posted a 23.3% strikeout rate and a .678 OPS. But much like Merrill for the Padres, Chourio was the best hitter in the second half of a playoff-qualified Brewers team.

The 20-year-old has cut his first-half strikeout rate by points and has hit the ball on the ground significantly less often since the All-Star break. By hitting the ball up more often, Chourio has become a deadly hitter. Just ask the Brewers' scoreboard.

Since the Midsummer Classic, Chourio has an OPS of .944, putting him ahead of NL MVP candidate Francisco Lindor and just behind NL MVP favorite Shohei Ohtani. He ranks in the top 15 in batting average and wRC+, and his WAR of 2.9 after his All-Star title is just ahead of Merrill. Oh, and Chourio is also the youngest player in MLB history to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases in a single season.

Chourio has rotated between left and right field, where he has been one of the game's best defenders. Skenes and Merrill all grab the headlines, but Chourio shouldn't be overlooked in this race.

Shota Imanaga, (SP, Chicago Cubs)

Imanaga ranks sixth in the MLB in ERA and ninth in adjusted ERA.

Masyn Winn (SS, St. Louis Cardinals)

A defensive ace at shortstop with a cannon arm who also hit 14 home runs and stole 11 bases.

Tyler Fitzgerald (IF/OF, San Francisco Giants)

Fitzgerald only played 87 games for the Giants, but posted an OPS of .861 while hitting 14 home runs and stealing 17 bases.

1. Luis Gil (SP, Yankees)

Since this is a prediction article, why not predict something bold that has only happened four times since the ROY Award was introduced in 1947? For the first time since 2011, a pitcher will win both the AL and NL ROY Awards. And Gil, the best and most consistent starter on a Yankees playoff team, will take home the trophy in the AL.

Gil was absolutely dominant over the course of his first 14 starts, posting a 2.03 ERA and looking to be an early contender for the AL CY Young Award. He's since come back down to earth somewhat, pitching just 140 2/3 innings through Friday as he battled an injury and workload issues after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery in 2022. But Gil has been remarkably steady all year.

Additionally, Gil ranks 10th or better in ERA and strikeout rate among AL starters who have pitched at least 100 innings this year. His opponent batting average of .184 would put him at the top among AL starters if he qualified for innings, while his adjusted ERA of 130 would place him just outside the top 10 pitchers in all of MLB.

Gil walks too many batters and the voting history in the AL is against him in this race. It's going to be close between Gil, his teammate Wells and Cowser. But the best pitcher on the best team in the AL has a slight lead.

2. Austin Wells (C, Yankees)

Wells started the year slowly, but was a revelation behind the plate and in center field for the playoff-eligible Yankees.

You want offense? Among catchers who have played at least 100 games, Wells ranks 5th in wRC+, 7th in OPS and 12th in home runs. You want defense? Wells ranks in the 96th percentile of all catchers in Statcast's pitch framing metric and is capable of blocking throws in the dirt, ranking 73rd in blocks above average. He's league average at throwing out runners attempting to steal a base. One downside is that he's made 11 errors, the most among catchers.

Most importantly, Wells has provided much-needed momentum in the middle of the Yankees' lineup behind AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge and fellow batting partner Juan Soto.

His hitting cooled off a bit in September, and the main criticism of Wells is that he's essentially a platoon hitter for the Yankees – this season he has an OPS of .801 against right-handers and an OPS of .525 against left-handers.

However, there is no denying that Wells has a legitimate chance to become the first catcher to win the AL ROY Award since Sandy Alomar in 1990.

3. Colton Cowser (fullback, Orioles)

Thanks to a scorching March and April, Cowser seemed poised to become the second consecutive Orioles player to win the AL ROY title, following in the footsteps of teammate Gunnar Henderson, who took home the trophy in 2023.

His hitting has cooled since then, but that doesn't mean his candidacy for the award should, too. Cowser has hit 20 home runs and posted a 120 OPS+ in 145 games for an Orioles team with championship aspirations. The 24-year-old is also an excellent left fielder, as he ranks second among all players at the position in outs above average thanks to plays like this one.

It was difficult for Orioles manager Brandon Hyde to take Cowser's bat and glove out of the lineup, as the rookie played in the third-most games on a team with an 85-68 record entering the postseason.

Mason Miller (RP, Oakland Athletics)

Miller has been outstanding with his triple-digit fastball. He ranks first in K/BB percentage and is ninth with 27 saves.

Wilyer Abreu (fullback, Boston Red Sox)

Abreu is already one of the better defensive right fielders in the game, boasting an OPS of .800.