Prediction for BYU Football vs. No. 13 Kansas State

BYU's second season in the Big 12 is about to begin. On Saturday night, BYU (3-0) hosts Kansas State (3-0 and No. 13) at Lavell Edwards Stadium. BYU will wear throwback white uniforms to honor the 1996 BYU football team, and fans will wear white, too. There will be a whiteout in Provo after dark.

The Wildcats enter this game as one touchdown favorites. Today we pull out our crystal ball and predict BYU vs. Kansas State.

First of all, we feel like we have a really good feeling about this team after three games. Let us explain that.

Of all the games this season, however, this game is by far the hardest to predict. Avery Johnson is making his first start at a conference away position. BYU has had a constant rotation at the running back position due to injuries. Kansas State's secondary hasn't been great in pass defense. BYU has been one of the best teams in the country in the passing game, but the Cougars have never had a dominant passing attack. There are more questions than answers ahead of this game, and we've been going back and forth all week.

There are a few things BYU needs to do to win this game.

BYU needs to get Avery Johnson to convert first downs with his arm. Johnson hasn't proven he can break through a defense with his arm alone. He will be able to gain some yards with his legs – he might be the best running quarterback BYU faces this season. But if BYU can keep Kansas State behind the posts and force Johnson to throw, BYU has a chance to win this game.

On offense, BYU has to let Jake Retzlaff take control. The biggest weakness of Kansas State's defense is that it allows a lot of yards through the air. The Wildcats have allowed:

Only Cam Ward (Miami) and Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) have more passes of 20 yards or more than Jake Retzlaff. Long, sustained drives will be hard to come by in this game. BYU needs to make up some yards.

At the same time, Jake Retzlaff has to be smart and protect the ball. It's hard to imagine a scenario where BYU loses the ball multiple times AND comes away with a win. Turnovers have plagued Retzlaff throughout his BYU career. That has to end on Saturday.

Gaining yards on the ground will be a challenge. KSU has one of the better run defenses in the country and BYU could start with its third or fourth running back. BYU offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick will have to get creative to stay ahead. BYU has had too many 3rd and long situations this season. If the run game isn't working, BYU will have to get creative to gain 3-7 yards on first and second down.

Finally, BYU must make Kansas State work hard for its touchdowns. What does that mean? Kansas State has returned more kicks for touchdowns than any other college football team in the last 20 years. BYU must not allow a special teams touchdown. They must not allow a defensive touchdown either – something that plagued BYU a year ago.

I think this is the game where Jake Retzlaff will turn doubters into believers. Retzlaff will have to get creative and make plays outside of the script.

Ultimately, I think the environment will be the deciding factor in this game. It's a night game under the lights at Lavell Edwards Stadium and there will be a whiteout.

I believe the first team to score 24 points will win the game. BYU will pull off the upset.

BYU 27 | Kansas State 23